人民长江2024，Vol.55Issue(10) ：101-109.DOI:10.16232/j.cnki.1001-4179.2024.10.014

生态系统服务与人类活动协调性时空演变及预测

Spatiotemporal evolution and prediction of coordination between ecosystem service and human activity

刘涛 张海朋 杨孟豪
人民长江2024，Vol.55Issue(10) ：101-109.DOI:10.16232/j.cnki.1001-4179.2024.10.014
✕
  • 维普
  • 万方数据

生态系统服务与人类活动协调性时空演变及预测

Spatiotemporal evolution and prediction of coordination between ecosystem service and human activity

刘涛 1张海朋 2杨孟豪3
扫码查看

作者信息

  • 1. 河南省地质科学研究所有限公司,河南 郑州 450007
  • 2. 河南大学 黄河文明与可持续发展研究中心暨黄河文明省部共建协同创新中心,河南 开封 475001
  • 3. 华北水利水电大学 测绘与地理信息学院,河南郑州 450046
  • 折叠

摘要

探究并预测生态系统服务与人类活动之间关系的演变特征对于推动建设人与自然和谐共生的生态新格局意义重大.以陕西省黄河流域为例,通过价值当量法、人类活动强度模型、PLUS模型和多种统计分析方法,对生态系统服务与人类活动以及二者之间的协调性进行时空演变特征分析和多情景预测.结果表明:1980～2020 年陕西省黄河流域生态系统服务价值总体增加54.33 亿元,与2020 年相比,2030 年惯性发展和经济优先模式下生态系统服务价值分别减少7.81 亿元、20.11 亿元,耕地保护和生态保护模式下分别增加0.27亿元、8.24 亿元.1980～2020 年人类活动强度呈现出"N"形变化特征,与2020 年相比,经济优先和惯性发展模式下人类活动强度增强,耕地保护和生态保护模式下有所减弱.研究区生态系统服务与人类活动呈现逐渐增强的负相关关系,二者协调性较差,2030 年生态保护模式下二者的负相关作用最弱,经济优先模式下最强.综合来看,未来经济优先模式下的负面影响最大,陕西省黄河流域应优先选择生态保护型的发展模式.

Abstract

Exploring and predicting the evolution characteristics of relationship between ecosystem service and human activity is of great significance for promoting construction for the ecological security pattern of harmonious coexistence between human and nature.Taking the Yellow River Basin in Shaanxi Province as an example,this paper analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution charac-teristics and multi-scenario prediction of ecosystem services and human activities,as well as their coordination,through value e-quivalence method,human activity intensity model,PLUS model,and various statistical analysis methods.The results showed that the overall ecosystem service value of the Shaanxi Yellow River Basin increased by 5.433 billion yuan from 1980 to 2020.Com-pared with the result in 2020,the ecosystem service value under the inertia development mode and economic priority mode would decrease by 781 million yuan and 2.011 billion yuan respectively in 2030.The ecosystem service value under the cultivated land protection mode and ecological protection mode would increase by 27 million yuan and 824 million yuan respectively in 2030.From 1980 to 2020,the human activity intensity showed a"N"shaped change pattern.Compared with 2020,the human activity intensity increased under the economic priority mode and inertia development mode,while weakened under the cultivated land pro-tection mode and ecological protection mode in 2030.In the study area,the negative correlation between ecosystem service and hu-man activity was gradually increasing,and such coordination was poor.In 2030,the negative correlation between ecosystem service and human activity would be the weakest in the ecological protection mode,while the strongest in the economic priority model.O-verall,the negative impact of economic priority mode is the greatest in the future,and the Yellow River Basin in Shaanxi Province should give priority to the ecological protection mode.

关键词

生态系统服务/人类活动/多情景模拟/协调性/黄河流域

Key words

ecosystem service/human activity/multi-scenario simulation/coordination/Yellow River Basin

引用本文复制引用

基金项目

国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0402402)

教育部人文社会科学基金项目(23YJC790185)

河南省软科学项目(242400411176)

河南省高等学校重点科研项目(24B170003)

出版年

2024
人民长江
水利部长江水利委员会

人民长江

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子：0.451
ISSN：1001-4179
参考文献量16
段落导航相关论文