摘要
金沙江上中游河段是中国规划建设的重要水电能源基地,探究变化环境下金沙江上中游河川径流演变规律对于促进流域水资源高效利用与管理具有重要意义.采用非参数检验、滑动t检验法、小波功率法系统研究了金沙江上中游河段的径流演变规律,并结合不均匀系数、完全调节系数、集中度和基尼系数等指标综合分析了梯级水库建设运行对金沙江中游河段径流的影响.结果表明:1970～2022 年间,金沙江上中游流域的年均流量呈现出不显著上升趋势;流域径流从上游到中游增加幅度越来越大,中游河段的多年平均流量相较上游增加了24.5%,而径流的突变点越来越滞后,且从上游到中游的径流变化周期显著性降低;梯级水库的投运与水库的蓄洪补枯调节作用不仅使得中游河段来水量更加均匀,波动性减小,且河段径流在丰水期水量下降,而枯水期水量增加,最小月均流量出现时间提前.研究成果可为金沙江流域水资源优化配置提供理论支撑.
Abstract
The upper and middle reaches of Jinsha River,a pivotal hydropower energy hub in Chinese strategic planning and construction,holds immense importance in exploring runoff evolution under environmental variations.This understanding is crucial for enhancing the efficient utilization and management of water resources within the basin.In this study,we delved into the runoff evolution in the upper and middle reaches of Jinsha River Basin using non-parametric test,sliding t-test,and wavelet power method,and provided a comprehensive analysis on the influence of cascade reservoir operation on runoff by examining metrics such as the inhomogeneity coefficient,complete adjustment coefficient,concentration,and Gini coefficient.The findings revealed that the annual runoff in the study area showed a non-significant upward trend.Notably,the runoff increased more and more from upstream to midstream.The average annual flow of the middle reaches increased by 24.5%compared to upstream levels,albeit with a delayed abrupt change.Additionally,the runoff periodicity from upstream to midstream became increasingly subdued.Cas-cade reservoir operations and flood storage regulations not only stabilized water flow in the river's middle reaches,reduced fluctua-tions,but also modulated runoff,decreasing in wet seasons and increasing in dry seasons,and this also led to an advance in mini-mum monthly flows.The research results can provide theoretical support and reference for the optimal allocation of water resources in the Jinsha River Basin.
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