人民长江2024,Vol.55Issue(10) :133-140.DOI:10.16232/j.cnki.1001-4179.2024.10.018

基于建筑易损性分析的泥石流风险评价

Risk assessment of debris flow based on building vulnerability analysis

潘梦宇 雷雨 顾海华 蒋虎 周文韬 周斌
人民长江2024,Vol.55Issue(10) :133-140.DOI:10.16232/j.cnki.1001-4179.2024.10.018

基于建筑易损性分析的泥石流风险评价

Risk assessment of debris flow based on building vulnerability analysis

潘梦宇 1雷雨 2顾海华 2蒋虎 1周文韬 1周斌1
扫码查看

作者信息

  • 1. 中国科学院、水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所,四川成都 610299;中国科学院大学,北京 100049
  • 2. 中国科学院、水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所,四川成都 610299
  • 折叠

摘要

泥石流对建筑物的破坏是导致人员伤亡和经济损失的主要原因,研究泥石流作用下建筑物的易损性是评价泥石流风险的关键环节.以长江流域卿家沟为研究区,采用FLO-2D软件模拟20,50,100 a一遇极端降雨场景下泥石流的动力过程,并基于泥石流强度(hv)进行了危险性分区;在此基础上,构建了适用于长江流域砌体结构建筑的易损性评估曲线,提出了一套基于泥石流动力过程和建筑易损性分析的风险评价方法.结果表明:FLO-2D模拟精度达79%,易损性曲线的相关系数R2 为0.88,评估效果良好;随着降雨规模的增加,研究区风险区总面积由3.30 万m2 增加到3.99 万m2,增长了20.8%;高和极高风险区面积显著增大,由0.68万m2 增加到0.86 万m2,增长了27.1%;位于低风险区以上的房屋数量由7 栋增加至11 栋,原本位于低风险区的建筑可能面临更高的风险.最后,提出了生态防治和工程防治协同治理的措施,可为长江流域泥石流防灾减灾及治江工作提供合理建议.

Abstract

Destruction to buildings by debris flows is a major cause of casualties and economic losses.Studying vulnerability of buildings under debris flow conditions is a key step in assessing debris flow risk.This research focuses on the Qingjiagou area in the Changjiang River Basin,utilizing FLO-2D software to simulate the dynamic processes of debris flows under extreme rainfall scenarios with return periods of 20,50,and 100 years.Hazard zonation was performed based on debris flow intensity(hv).Addi-tionally,vulnerability assessment curves suitable for masonry structures in the Changjiang River Basin were developed,based on this we provided a risk evaluation method based on the dynamic processes of debris flows and building vulnerability analysis.The research results indicated that the accuracy of the FLO-2D simulation reached 79%,with a correlation coefficient(R2)of 0.88 for the vulnerability curves,demonstrating good assessment results.As rainfall intensity increased,the total area of risk zones in the study area expanded from 33 000 m2 to 39 900 m2,increase by 20.8%.The areas classified as high and very high risk signifi-cantly increased from 6 800 m2 to 8 600 m2,increase by 27.1%.The number of houses located above the low-risk zone in-creased from 7 to 11,indicating that buildings initially in low-risk zones may face heightened risks.Finally,collaborative meas-ures for ecological prevention and engineering control were proposed,providing reasonable recommendations for disaster prevention and mitigation against debris flows in the Changjiang River Basin.

关键词

泥石流风险评价/易损性分析/FLO-2D软件/卿家沟泥石流/长江流域

Key words

debris flow risk assessment/vulnerability analysis/FLO-2D software/Qingjiagou debris flow/Changjiang River Basin

引用本文复制引用

基金项目

国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3008303)

中巴经济走廊合作项目(CPEC-130)

林芝国家可持续发展实验区专项项目(2023-SYQ-007)

中科院成都山地所自主部署科研项目(IMHE-ZDRW-02)

出版年

2024
人民长江
水利部长江水利委员会

人民长江

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.451
ISSN:1001-4179
参考文献量17
段落导航相关论文