Retrospective analysis of flood forecast and reservoir operation during 2024 Changjinag River No.1 flood
On June 28,2024 Changjiang River No.1 flood was formed in the middle and lower reaches of Changjiang River.During the flood fighting period,with the development of flood situations,rolling flood forecasting was carried out to support the joint operation of reservoir groups.When the boundary of reservoir operation was adjusted,the flood forecast was updated in a timely rolling manner,thus gradually improving the accuracy of the forecast and achieving good results in reservoir group opera-tion.By statistically analyzing the accuracy of flood forecasts and the process of reservoir group storage,a variety of hydrology and hydraulics methods were used to reduce the reservoir operation process and quantify the flood control benefits.The results showed that the river section below Chenglingji Station was predicted to exceed the safety level along the whole line 5 days in advance,the mainstream of Changjiang River was predicted to form a numbered flood 4 days in advance,and the peak flood water level was ac-curately predicted 1～3 days in advance at each station.Through the operation of the reservoir group,the flood peak encounter a-mong the upper reaches of Changjiang River,Dongting Lake,and Poyang Lake had been effectively avoided.The flood peak water level of the middle and lower mainstream and the outlet control station of two lakes were significantly reduced by 0.4 to 1.7 m.The river length of the middle and lower main stream which exceeded the safety level was shortened by about 206 km.The water level of the Jianli to Luoshan section was prevented from exceeding the guaranteed water level,and the use of flood storage and de-tention areas in the vicinity of Chenglingji region was avoided.The flood control benefits were remarkable.The research results can provide a reference for disaster prevention and mitigation and joint operation of reservoir groups in Changjiang River.
2024 flood in Changjiang Riverflood forecastingjoint operation of reservoir groupflood control benefitmiddle and lower reaches of Changjiang River
万方数据
维普
