Verification of multi-model area precipitation forecasts during 2024 flood in Changjinag River Basin
This study aims to evaluate the area precipitation forecasting performance of various numerical models during the 2024 flood in the Changjinag River Basin,and understand the forecasting capabilities of current operational models.Through TS score and mean absolute error(MAE),we analyze the precipitation forecasting performances of different numerical models(EC,GRAPES-GFS,NCEP,GERM AN,and the Japanese model)during the 2024 Changjinag River No.1 flood and No.2 flood.The results indicated that:① during the 2024 Changjinag River No.1 flood,the EC model demonstrated the most stable performance in precipitation forecasting,exhibiting the best results,particularly in forecasting heavy rain and rainstorms.The GRAPES-GFS model ranked second,showing good performance,especially in rainstorm forecasts.In contrast,the Japanese model performed poor-ly across all forecast periods,with TS scores lower than other models,particularly in the 48 to 96-hour forecasts.② Additionally,analysis during the 2024 Changjinag River No.2 flood revealed that the GERMAN model performed well in forecasting light and middle rain,but was less effective than the EC and GRAPES-GFS models in forecasting heavy rain and rainstorm.Overall,there were large differences in the precipitation forecasting capabilities of various models facing different magnitudes of rain and re-gions.A deeper understanding of these inter-model differences can provide important references for future precipitation forecas-ting efforts.
area precipitation forecastTS scorenumerical model products2024 flood in the Changjinag River Basin
万方数据
维普
