Appropriate evaluation indicators and methods are crucial for ensuring the scientific and objective assessment of wa-ter resource carrying capacity.This study aims to identify key factors affecting the evaluation of water resource carrying capacity and to explore efficient evaluation methods.Based on indicator data from various regions in China in 2020,an evaluation index system for water resource carrying capacity was constructed from three dimensions:economy,population,and environment.An ob-stacle degree model was employed to qualitatively and quantitatively screen key indicators.Comparative studies were conducted on four single evaluation methods(Entropy weighting-TOPSIS,entropy weighting-linear weighting,fuzzy comprehensive evalua-tion,and factor analysis method)and three combined evaluation methods(fuzzy Borda method,drift degree combined evaluation method,and variance maximization combined evaluation method).Based on the research results,a measurement analysis of the e-volution trend of China's water resource carrying capacity from 2004 to 2022 was conducted.The results indicate:① The key fac-tor affecting China's water resource carrying capacity is the per capita water resource possession(obstacle degree index up to 0.556),followed by the proportion of ecological environment water use(obstacle degree index 0.181)and the rural domestic sewage treatment rate(obstacle degree index 0.057)among other indicators.② Combined evaluation methods outperform single evaluation methods in terms of stability and trend,but their calculation process is more complex.Among the combined evaluation methods,the variance maximization combined evaluation method performs the best,with an average error of only 1.56％;among the single evaluation methods,the entropy weighting-linear weighting method performs the best,with an average error of 4.30％.③ From 2004 to 2022,China's water resource carrying capacity index increased from 0.115 to 0.867,mainly due to the key role of the government in promoting water conservation and ecological environment improvement.The research outcomes can provide a scientific basis for regional water resource management.
关键词
水资源承载力/评价指标/障碍度/单一评价法/组合评价法
Key words
water resource carrying capacity/evaluation indicators/obstacle degree/single evaluation method/combined e-valuation method
维普
万方数据