In order to effectively address the urban water supply and demand conflicts caused by rapid urbanization and indus-trialization,it is crucial to accurately assess the water resource carrying capacity(WRCC)and to explore rational utilization mod-els of water resource.Comprehensively considering the dynamic relationships between the water resource,society,the economy and the environment in a comprehensive manner,this study proposed a WRCC simulation-evaluation model,which was constituted by the coupling of the entropy-weighted TOPSIS method with system dynamics.Taking Chengdu City,a megacity in Southwest Chi-na,as the study area,we employed scenario analysis to simulate and analyze the development trend of WRCC of Chengdu City from 2019 to 2035.The findings demonstrated that the existing water resource is unable to sustain the current development model of Chengdu City.The spatial pressure of WRCC is the highest in the central and eastern regions,followed by the south-west,and lowest in the north,with a significant radiation effect centred on the urban core.A narrow focus on economic development,indus-trial structure adjustment,or water resource policy adjustment is an inadequate approach to comprehensively enhancing regional WRCC.Instead,an integrated development strategy is the optimal choice.To enhance the WRCC,it is essential to reinforce the synergistic effects of water resource policy adjustments and industrial structure optimization,particularly in areas with high popula-tion density.This study can provide a theoretical foundation and methodological support to mitigate urban water supply and de-mand conflicts and ensure the sustainable development of the supercity and megacity.
关键词
水资源承载力/系统动力学/熵权TOPSIS法/时空动态模拟/情景分析/成都市/超大城市
Key words
water resource carrying capacity/system dynamics/entropy-weighted TOPSIS/spatiotemporal dynamic simula-tion/scenario analysis/Chengdu City/megacity
维普
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