首页|碳中和目标下黄河流域全要素碳生产率时空演化研究

碳中和目标下黄河流域全要素碳生产率时空演化研究

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  • 国家科技期刊平台
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提升碳生产率是实现碳达峰、碳中和的有效手段.为协调黄河流域经济增长与碳减排的关系,核算了 2007-2017 年黄河流域九省(区)的碳生产率,基于DEA-Malmquist的全要素碳生产率模型计算所得数值分析了九省(区)全要素碳生产率的时空演化格局,识别了全要素碳生产率的影响因素.结果表明:1)在时间维度上,2007-2017 年九省(区)的碳生产率平稳上升,增幅高达283.3%;全要素碳生产率增长缓慢,维持在 1.000 左右.2)在空间维度上,受经济发展和资源禀赋的影响,碳生产率和全要素碳生产率区域异质性较大,呈现"下游显著高于中游、中游略高于上游"空间演变格局.3)从影响因素来看,上中游属于技术效率拉动型区域,技术进步的作用微弱,而下游属于技术进步和技术效率共同推动型区域.基于此,提出创新体制机制、推广低碳发展模式,立足低碳技术创新、加快能源结构调整,加强区域一体化合作、提升要素配置效率等策略建议.
Research on the Spatial-Temporal Evolution of Total Factor Carbon Productivity in the Yellow River Basin Under the Carbon Neutrality Target
Increasing carbon productivity is an effective means to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality.In order to coordinate the rela-tionship between economic growth and carbon emissions reduction in the Yellow River Basin,the carbon productivity of 9 provinces(regions)in the Yellow River Basin from 2007 to 2017 was calculated.Based on DEA-Malmquist's total factor carbon productivity model,the spatial-temporal evolution trajectory and spatial distribution pattern of total factor carbon productivity of 9 provinces(regions)was deduced.The po-tential improvement space of total factor carbon productivity was scientifically decomposed and the influencing factors of the spatial-temporal evolution of carbon productivity were identified.Based on this,the improvement path of carbon productivity in the Yellow River Basin was condensed.The results show that a)in the time dimension,the carbon productivity of 9 provinces(regions)rise steadily with the growth of per capita GDP,an increase of 283.3%,while the total factor carbon productivity remains at around 1.000.b)In the spatial dimension,the regional heterogeneity of carbon productivity and total factor carbon productivity is relatively larger affected by economic development and re-sources endowments,showing a spatial evolution pattern of"the lower reaches significantly higher than the middle reaches,and the middle reaches slightly higher than the upper reaches".c)From the point of influencing factors,the middle reaches and upper reaches belong to the region of technical efficiency-driven,the role of technological progress is weak,while the lower reaches is a co-promotion type of technologi-cal progress and technological efficiency.Based on this,this paper proposes strategic suggestions such as innovating institutional mechanisms,promoting low-carbon development models,focusing on low-carbon technology innovation,accelerating energy structure adjust-ment,strengthening regional integration cooperation and improving factor allocation efficiency.

carbon neutralitycarbon productivitytotal factor carbon productivityMalmquist indexhigh-quality developmentYellow River Basin

马明娟、殷文琦、吴亚齐、夏菲菲、李强

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北方民族大学 经济学院,宁夏 银川 750021

中国人民大学 农业与农村发展学院,北京 100872

国家民委 人文社会科学重点研究基地民族地区相对贫困治理研究中心,宁夏 银川 750021

北方民族大学 计算机科学与工程学院,宁夏 银川 750021

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碳中和 碳生产率 全要素碳生产率 Malmquist指数 高质量发展 黄河流域

国家社会科学基金项目北方民族大学 2022年一般科研项目国家自然科学基金项目国家自然科学基金项目宁夏自然科学基金项目

21XMZ0512022XYSJJ0261962002721010062022AAC05040

2024

10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2024.01.003

人民黄河
水利部黄河水利委员会

人民黄河

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子：0.494
ISSN：1000-1379
年,卷(期)：2024.46(1)
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