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基于OWA算子赋权和后悔理论的城市水资源脆弱性评价

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为解决城市水资源脆弱性评价方法主观性过强、未考虑自然人有限理性和后悔规避心理行为特征造成评价结果失真的问题,提出基于OWA(有序加权平均)算子赋权和后悔理论的城市水资源脆弱性评价方法.运用DPSIR模型,从驱动力、压力、状态、影响、响应 5 个方面构建 29 个评价指标;采用OWA算子对决策数据重新排序,充分考虑数据位置和大小,弱化极端决策数据对权重的负面作用;选择后悔理论中决策数据效用值和理想效用值间的差异性作为评判专家主观性的依据,实现决策主观数据的客观化,从而提升评价结果的客观性.最后对郑州市 2017-2022 年水资源脆弱性进行评价,并将评价结果与AHP(层次分析法)和后悔理论、OWA算子和模糊数学的评估结果对比分析.结果表明:基于OWA算子赋权和后悔理论的城市水资源脆弱性评价方法评价结果与其他方法评价结果基本一致,均认为郑州市水资源重度脆弱,但该方法评价结果相对误差更小,更贴近实际情况,可更好地用于城市水资源脆弱性评价.
Urban Water Resources Vulnerability Assessment Based on OWA Operator Empowerment and Regret Theory
In order to solve the problem that the assessment method of urban water resources vulnerability too subjective and not taking into account the finite rationality of natural person and the psychological behavior characteristics of regret avoidance,which resulting in the distor-tion of the evaluation results,this paper proposed an urban water resources vulnerability assessment method based on OWA operator empow-erment and regret theory.The DPSIR model was used to construct 29 evaluation indexes from the following five aspects including driving force,pressure,state,influence and response.OWA operator was used to reorder the decision data,which fully considered the location and size of data,so as to weaken the negative effect of extreme decision data on weight.The difference between the utility value of decision data and the ideal utility value in the regret theory was selected as the basis to evaluate the subjectivity of experts,so as to realize the objectifica-tion of the subjective data of decision making and improve the objectivity of the evaluation results.Finally,this paper evaluated the water re-sources vulnerability of Zhengzhou from 2017 to 2022,and compared the evaluation results with those of AHP and regret theory,OWA opera-tor and fuzzy mathematics.The results show that the evaluation results of urban water resources vulnerability assessment method based on OWA operator empowerment and regret theory are basically consistent with the evaluation results of other methods,all of which are considered as severely vulnerable water resources in Zhengzhou City.However,the evaluation results of this method have less relative error and are more close to the actual situation,which can be better used for the assessment of urban water resources vulnerability.

urban water resourcesvulnerability assessmentOWA operatorregret theoryZhengzhou City

王利艳、黄渝桂、张楠

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河南建筑职业技术学院 土木工程系,河南 郑州 450007

中水淮河规划设计研究有限公司,安徽 合肥 230091

黄河水利科学研究院,河南 郑州 450003

城市水资源 脆弱性评价 OWA算子 后悔理论 郑州市

国家重点研发计划项目

2017YFC0403505

2024

人民黄河
水利部黄河水利委员会

人民黄河

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.494
ISSN:1000-1379
年,卷(期):2024.46(1)
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