为研究黄河源区径流演变规律,以WEP-QTP(The Water and Energy transfer Processes in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau)模型为基础构建基于水热耦合的黄河源区冻土水文模型.采用玛曲站 2019-2021 年冻融期逐日土壤温度及土壤液态含水率对模型进行验证,率定期及验证期决定系数(R2)均值为 0.8 左右,均方根误差(RMSE)均值分别为 1.0℃及 0.04 左右;采用 8 个冻土监测点1971-2000 年冻融期逐日冻土深度进行验证,决定系数(R2)均值为 0.89,均方根误差(RMSE)均值为 214.81 mm.模型模拟黄河源区 1956-2020 年逐月流量过程,效率系数(NSE)为 0.8 左右,相对误差(RE)为 5%左右,表明模型能较好地模拟黄河源区径流过程.利用M-K趋势检验分析得到 1956-2020 年黄河源区径流呈不显著增加趋势,其变化趋势是降水与气温共同影响的结果.冻融期、非冻融期径流与全年趋势一致.降水增加、气候变暖及冻土退化使径流组分发生变化,地表径流及地下径流均呈增加趋势,但地下径流在全年及冻融期增加趋势更加显著.
Analysis of Runoff Evolution in the Source Region of the Yellow River in the Past 65 Years Based on the WEP-QTP Model
In order to study the evolution of runoff in the source region of the Yellow River,based on the WEP-QTP(the Water and Energy Transfer Processes in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau)model,a hydrological model of frozen soil in the source area of the Yellow River based on hydrothermal coupling was constructed.The model was verified by using the daily soil temperature and soil liquid moisture content during the freeze-thaw period of Maqu Station in 2019 to 2021.The mean coefficient of determination(R2)during the calibration period and the valida-tion period were about 0.8,and the mean square error(RMSE)was about 1.0℃and 0.04,respectively.The permafrost depth of the eight permafrost monitoring points was verified day by day during the freeze-thaw period from 1971 to 2000,and the mean coefficient of determina-tion(R2)was 0.89,and the mean square error(RMSE)was 214.81 mm.The model simulated the monthly flow process in the source region of the Yellow River from 1956 to 2020,with an efficiency coefficient(NSE)of about 0.8 and a relative error(RE)of about 5%,which showed that the model could better simulate the runoff process in the source region of the Yellow River.The M-K trend test was used to ana-lyze the non-significant increase in runoff in the source region of the Yellow River from 1956 to 2020,and the change trend was the result of the joint influence of precipitation and temperature.Runoff during the freeze-thaw and non-freeze-thaw periods was consistent with the trend throughout the year.The increase of precipitation,climate warming and permafrost degradation changed the runoff components,and the sur-face runoff and underground runoff showed an increasing trend,but the increase trend of underground runoff during the whole year and freeze-thaw period was more significant.
runoff evolutionfreeze-thaw periodnon-freeze-thaw periodWEP-QTP modelsource region of the Yellow River
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