Risk Analysis of Future Extreme Precipitation Flooding in the Northern Foot of Qinling Mountains Based on CMIP6
With global warming,the risk assessment of extreme precipitation has become the focus of academic circles and governments of various countries.Therefore,in order to accurately analyze the trend and risk distribution of future flood disasters in the northern foothills of the Qinling Mountains under the global warming scenario,based on CMIP6 rainfall data,geographical data and socio-economic data,the game combination weighting method,entropy weight method and analytic hierarchy process were used to build a flood disaster risk assessment model.Flood disaster risk was assessed for two scenarios(SSP245 and SSP585)and two periods(2040-2060 and 2070-2090).The results show that:a)the high-hazard areas are mainly distributed in the Lantian area and low-lying mountain areas.With the change of years and different development scenarios,the risk has a significantly increasing trend.b)The high vulnerability areas are mainly distributed in Zhouzhi County,Huyi District,northern Chang'an District and mountain road areas.c)The areas with a high risk of extreme rainfall and flood disaster are mainly concentrated in Lantian County and Lintong District.The risk of flood induced disasters increases over time in different scenarios.
flood disasterrisk analysisextreme precipitation indexCMIP6the northern foothills of Qinling Mountains
万方数据
维普
