首页|基于PSR模型的准格尔旗生态安全评估研究

基于PSR模型的准格尔旗生态安全评估研究

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准格尔旗地形地貌复杂,受气候干旱、过度放牧、过度开发矿产资源等自然因素和人类活动影响,准格尔旗生态环境脆弱,是黄河流域内蒙古段典型生态脆弱区.利用准格尔旗 2000-2019 年的社会统计数据、landsat TM/OLI遥感影像数据,采用PSR模型建立准格尔旗生态安全评价指标体系,采用灰色关联度模型筛选出影响准格尔旗生态安全的主要驱动因素,并进行了准格尔旗生态安全预测.结果表明:准格尔旗生态安全综合指数呈增大趋势,生态安全程度为临界安全,说明生态安全状况得到改善;生态安全状况变化与区域第二产业占比、年均气温、城市面积、人口规模及恩格尔系数的变化密切相关;准格尔旗生态安全预测显示2020-2029 年生态安全状况将有所改善.
Study on Ecological Security Assessment of Jungar Banner Based on PSR Model
Jungar Banner has complex topography,and is affected by natural disasters such as climate drought,overgrazing,over-exploitation of mineral resources and human activities.Jungar Banner has a fragile ecological environment,which is a typical ecological fragile area in In-ner Mongolia section of the Yellow River Basin.Based on the social statistical data of Jungar Banner from 2000 to 2019 and landsat TM/OLI remote sensing images data,the ecological security evaluation index system of Jungar Banner was established by using PSR model,and the important driving factors affecting the ecological security of Jungar Banner were screened out by using grey correlation model,and the ecologi-cal security of Jungar Banner was predicted.The results show that a)the comprehensive evaluation index of ecological security in Jungar Ban-ner shows an increasing trend from 2000 to 2019,and the ecological security status remains at the critical security level,indicating that the ecological security status in this region has been improved.b)The dynamic change of ecological security is closely related to the change of the proportion of regional secondary industry,annual average temperature,urban area,population and Engel coefficient.c)The results of the ecological security prediction model of Jungar Banner show that the ecological security index of this area will continue to rise in the next 10 years.

ecological security assessmentPSRdriving factorsJungar Banner

刘晓民、阿木古楞、杨耀天、王文光、王虎

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内蒙古农业大学 水利与土木建筑工程学院,内蒙古 呼和浩特 010018

内蒙古黄河生态研究院,内蒙古 呼和浩特 010020

黄河流域内蒙古段水资源与水环境综合治理协同创新中心,内蒙古 呼和浩特 010018

内蒙古自治区水利事业发展中心,内蒙古 呼和浩特 010010

乌审旗水利局,内蒙古 乌审旗 017300

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生态安全评价 PSR模型 驱动因素 准格尔旗

内蒙古自治区科技重大专项

2021ZD0008

2024

人民黄河
水利部黄河水利委员会

人民黄河

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.494
ISSN:1000-1379
年,卷(期):2024.46(2)
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