Analysis of Runoff Changes and Attribution in the Shaliu River Basin from 1969 to 2020
Taking the Shaliu River watershed in the Qinghai Lake Basin as the research object,the Penman-Monteith formula was used to ex-plore the spatial-temporal variation characteristics of the potential evapotranspiration ET0 in the watershed,and the Mann-Kendall and Pettitt tests were used to test the runoff trend and mutation characteristics of the Shaliu River watershed from 1969 to 2020.Based on hydrothermal coupling equilibrium theory,it analyzed and quantified the contribution of each factor to runoff change.The results show that the potential e-vapotranspiration in the watershed showed a downward trend from 1969 to 2020,with an average decrease rate of 4.8 mm/10 a.Through the mutation test,it was identified that the runoff had a mutation point in 2004(the runoff decreased before 2004 and then increased significant-ly).The elastic analysis of runoff change based on the hydrothermal coupling balance equation of the watershed shows that when the annual precipitation,potential evapotranspiration and underlying surface parameters increase by 10%respectively during the study period,the annual runoff increases by 14.4%,decreases by 4.4%and decreases by 8.8%respectively.The results of the runoff change attribution analysis show that climate change and human activities contribute 70.4%and 29.6%respectively to the decrease in runoff in the Shaliu River watershed.Cli-mate change is the main reason for the increase in runoff in the watershed and precipitation is the main factor affecting the variation of runoff.
hydrothermal coupling equilibrium theoryattribution analysisShaliu River watershedQinghai Lake Basin
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