黄河源区汛期降水径流序列多尺度小波分析
Multi-Scale Wavelet Analysis of Precipitation and Runoff Series in Flood Season in the Source Region of the Yellow River
轩党委 1张献志 1刘龙庆 1严昌盛 1白钰 2虞航 1郭强 1刘玉环1
作者信息
- 1. 黄河水利委员会 水文局,河南 郑州 450004
- 2. 黄河上游水电开发有限责任公司,青海 西宁 810000
- 折叠
摘要
基于黄河源区 15 个地面站点日降水数据、唐乃亥水文站逐日径流数据以及小波分析方法,分析了黄河源区 1961-2020 年汛期降水和径流的周期规律、变化趋势及相关关系.结果表明,1)黄河源区近 60a汛期降水、径流均存在多时间尺度的变化特征,且不同时间尺度汛期降水、径流丰枯变化趋势均不同;2)汛期降水、径流序列均具有63a左右、35a左右特征时间尺度的主周期,两个时间尺度下的平均周期分别为41、25a左右,汛期降水、汛期径流具有一定的正相关性;3)在63a特征时间尺度可预测2020 年之后未来 5～10 a内黄河源区汛期降水、径流整体均呈减小趋势.
Abstract
Based on the daily precipitation data of 15 ground stations in the source regions of the Yellow River,the daily runoff data of Tang-naihai Hydrological Station and the wavelet analysis method,this paper analyzed the periodic law,change trend and correlation of precipitati-on and runoff in the flood season of the source regions of the Yellow River from 1961 to 2020.The results show that a)the precipitation and runoff in the flood season of the source regions of the Yellow River in the past 60 years have the characteristics of multi-time scales,and the variation trends of precipitation and runoff in flood season are different at different time scales.b)The precipitation and runoff series in flood season have the main periods of about 63 years and about 35 years,and the average periods of the three time scales are about 41 years and 25 years,respectively.The precipitation and runoff in flood season have a certain positive correlation.c)Under the 63-year characteristic time scale,it can be predicted that the precipitation and runoff in the flood season of the source regions of the Yellow River will decrease in the next 5-10 years after 2020.
关键词
汛期降水/汛期径流/小波分析/黄河源区Key words
precipitation in flood season/runoff in flood season/wavelet analysis/source regions of the Yellow River引用本文复制引用
基金项目
国家自然科学基金黄河水科学研究联合基金(U2243229)
黄河上游水电开发有限责任公司科技项目(KY-C-2021-SD07)
国家自然科学基金面上项目(42371021)
出版年
2024
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据