首页|基于熵权TOPSIS的黄河流域甘肃段水资源承载力评价

基于熵权TOPSIS的黄河流域甘肃段水资源承载力评价

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  • 国家科技期刊平台
  • NETL
  • NSTL
  • 万方数据
为评价黄河流域甘肃段水资源承载力,以黄河流域甘肃段 4 个二级分区为研究对象,初选 20 个评价指标,利用信息敏感性和相关性分析法剔除敏感性较低和相关性较高的 7 个指标,最终确定 13 个评价指标.从系统角度将指标分为水资源、社会、经济、生态环境 4 个子系统,利用熵权法与TOPSIS模型结合的方法计算综合得分,并利用障碍因子诊断模型分析 4 个二级分区的水资源承载力障碍因子.结果表明:空间维度上,黄河流域甘肃段水资源承载力存在空间差异性,龙羊峡以上分区水资源承载力最高,龙羊峡—兰州分区与兰州—河口镇分区水资源承载力次之,龙门—三门峡分区水资源承载力最低;时间维度上,除龙羊峡以上分区外其余 3 个二级分区水资源承载力均有缓慢上升趋势;人均水资源量、产水模数、人均供水量、人口密度、城镇化率及生态环境用水率是影响黄河流域甘肃段水资源承载力的主要障碍因子,建议优化水资源配置、调整用水结构、促使经济发展与水资源承载力相匹配等,以提升及保持黄河流域甘肃段水资源承载力.
Comprehensive Evaluation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in the Gansu Section of the Yellow River Basin Based on Entropy-Weight-TOPSIS Model
In order to assess the water resources carrying capacity of the Gansu section of the Yellow River Basin,this paper chose a set of 20 evaluation indicators initially,targeting four distinct secondary regions.Through an analytical process involving sensitivity and correlation as-sessments,seven indicators that exhibited low sensitivity and high correlation were pruned,culminating in a refined set of 13 indicators.These indicators were systematically organized into four sub-systems of water resources,societal factors,economic aspects,and ecological en-vironment.The composite scores were derived by integrating the entropy weight method with the TOPSIS model.Furthermore,a barrier factor diagnosis model was applied to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity across the four secondary regions.The findings reveal spatial variations in carrying capacity,with the area above Longyangxia station demonstrating the highest capacity,followed by the sections from Longyangxia station to Lanzhou and from Lanzhou to Hekouzhen station,and the lowest capacity observed in the section from Longmen to Sanmenxia station.In terms of temporal trends,barring the area above Longyangxia station,a steady rise in carrying capacity is observed in the remaining three regions.Key factors impeding the water resources carrying capacity in the Gansu section of the Yellow River Basin encom-pass per capita water availability,water production index,per capita water supply,population density,urbanization rate,and the rate of wa-ter usage for ecological environments.Strategic planning of water resources distribution,restructuring water consumption patterns,and syn-chronizing water resources carrying capacity with economic growth are instrumental in enhancing and sustaining the carrying capacity of the Gansu section of the Yellow River Basin.

entropy weight methodTOPSIS modelwater resources carrying capacitybarrier degree modelGansu section of the Yellow River Basin

张帆、尹萌、张金霞

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甘肃省水利厅 水利工程建设造价与规费管理中心,甘肃 兰州 730030

甘肃农业大学 水利水电工程学院,甘肃 兰州 730070

水资源承载力 熵权法 TOPSIS模型 障碍度模型 黄河流域甘肃段

甘肃省水利厅水利工程建设造价与规费管理中心跨市州重大水利工程立项协作推进机制项目甘肃省水利科学试验研究与技术推广计划甘肃省水利科学试验研究与技术推广计划甘肃省高等学校创新基金国家自然科学基金甘肃省科学院泥石流防治技术优化与减灾效果评价人才团队建设项目

GSAU-JSZX-2023-00124GSLK0782022042021B-13851509039GSAU-JSZX-2021-011

2024

10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2024.04.013

人民黄河
水利部黄河水利委员会

人民黄河

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子：0.494
ISSN：1000-1379
年,卷(期)：2024.46(4)
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