Estimation of the Temporal and Spatial Evolution Trend of Future Terrestrial Water Reserves in the Yellow River Basin
Under the influence of climate change and human activities,significant changes have occurred in the basin water cycle,making the situation for water resources protection increasingly severe.In response to the issues of water shortage in the Yellow River Basin and the difficulty in monitoring terrestrial water storage,this study based on GRACE(Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment)data and the Varia-ble Infiltration Capacity(VIC)model,estimated the future changes of terrestrial water storage in the Yellow River Basin and analyzed the impact mechanism of climate change on terrestrial water storage.The results show that:a)the changes of terrestrial water storage calculated by GRACE and VIC using the component summation method shows high consistency,effectively simulating the spatiotemporal evolution char-acteristics of terrestrial water storage in the Yellow River Basin.b)From 2030 to 2100,there is a relatively insignificant increasing trend in terrestrial water storage in the Yellow River Basin,and under the SSP585 scenario,the increasing trend in terrestrial water storage is more intense.c)During the forecast period,precipitation,temperature,and evapotranspiration in various regions of the Yellow River Basin are all projected to increase compared to historical periods.However,runoff in the Yellow River source area and near Lanzhou is expected to de-crease compared to historical periods.Although the overall land water storage in the Yellow River Basin shows an increasing trend during the forecast period,only the terrestrial water storage anomaly in Inner Mongolia is greater than 0.
terrestrial water storageGRACEVIC modelYellow River Basin
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