Risk Assessment of Beam-Type Aqueduct Operation Based on Entropy Weight Optimization FFR-BN Method
The operation of beam-type aqueducts is affected by various risk factors,and the complexity of the connections and relationships between these factors,as well as the limitations of factor cognition often result in inaccurate risk assessment results.Therefore,the FFR-BN method based on entropy weight optimization was proposed for conducting risk analysis of beam-type aqueduct operation.This method adopted the entropy weight method to fuse and optimize subjective and objective weights,effectively solving the issues of low accuracy and strong sub-jectivity in expert scoring in traditional evaluation methods.The beam-type aqueduct complex system was divided into subsystems(factors and elements)by interpreting the structural model,and then the direct binary relation between risk factor was analyzed.Thus,the logical rela-tionship framework between risk factor and risk events in the complex system was built and the fuzzy failure probability(FFR)of the factors was calculated.On this basis,the reverse reasoning technology of Bayesian network was used to calculate the maximum possible path of risk events and determine the decisive risk factor in the operation risk of beam-type aqueduct.Through this method,it is calculated that the com-prehensive risk level of the beam-type aqueduct is class I.The key hazard risk factors of the project are the increase of design flood,rein-forcement failure,surface concrete erosion and material properties.In addition,due to the influence of the terrain and geological conditions in the area,the risk caused by the protection of the wrapped slope becomes the most likely risk path.
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