基于熵权优化FFR-BN法的梁式渡槽运行风险评价
Risk Assessment of Beam-Type Aqueduct Operation Based on Entropy Weight Optimization FFR-BN Method
康鸣雷 1赵本超 1叶伟 2李迎春 1张卢笑 1董朝阳1
作者信息
- 1. 河南省豫北水利工程管理局,河南 济源 459000
- 2. 南京水利科学研究院,江苏 南京 210029
- 折叠
摘要
梁式渡槽运行受多种风险因素影响,各因素之间联系及作用关系的复杂性及对因素认知的局限性常常造成风险评价结果不够精确,对此提出基于熵权优化的FFR-BN法开展梁式渡槽运行风险分析.此方法采用熵权法对主观与客观权重进行融合优化,有效解决了传统评价方法中专家打分低精度及强主观性问题.通过解释结构模型将梁式渡槽复杂系统拆分为各种子系统(因素、要素),随后分析风险因子之间的直接二元关系,从而构建复杂系统内风险因子、风险事件之间的逻辑关系框架,并在此基础上计算因子的模糊失效概率,运用贝叶斯网络的反向推理技术确定风险事件发生的最大可能路径、梁式渡槽运行风险中决定性风险因子.通过此方法计算得出实例梁式渡槽综合风险等级为I级,关键致灾风险因子为设计洪水增加、钢筋失效、表层混凝土剥蚀、材料特性等,受所处区域地形及地质条件影响,裹头边坡防护问题导致的风险致因链是最大可能风险致因链.
Abstract
The operation of beam-type aqueducts is affected by various risk factors,and the complexity of the connections and relationships between these factors,as well as the limitations of factor cognition often result in inaccurate risk assessment results.Therefore,the FFR-BN method based on entropy weight optimization was proposed for conducting risk analysis of beam-type aqueduct operation.This method adopted the entropy weight method to fuse and optimize subjective and objective weights,effectively solving the issues of low accuracy and strong sub-jectivity in expert scoring in traditional evaluation methods.The beam-type aqueduct complex system was divided into subsystems(factors and elements)by interpreting the structural model,and then the direct binary relation between risk factor was analyzed.Thus,the logical rela-tionship framework between risk factor and risk events in the complex system was built and the fuzzy failure probability(FFR)of the factors was calculated.On this basis,the reverse reasoning technology of Bayesian network was used to calculate the maximum possible path of risk events and determine the decisive risk factor in the operation risk of beam-type aqueduct.Through this method,it is calculated that the com-prehensive risk level of the beam-type aqueduct is class I.The key hazard risk factors of the project are the increase of design flood,rein-forcement failure,surface concrete erosion and material properties.In addition,due to the influence of the terrain and geological conditions in the area,the risk caused by the protection of the wrapped slope becomes the most likely risk path.
关键词
熵权法/贝叶斯网络/解释结构模型/梁式渡槽/风险分析Key words
entropy weight method/Bayesian network/interpretive structural model/beam-type aqueduct/risk analysis引用本文复制引用
基金项目
国家自然科学基金黄河水科学研究联合基金(U2243244)
出版年
2024
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据