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黄河旱涝变化特征及应对过程

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为了科学识别黄河旱涝变化特征及应对能力,提出连续丰水年和连续枯水年的判定方法,采用标准化径流指数(SRI)和标准化旱涝急转指数(SDWAI)识别 1956-2020 年黄河利津站径流旱涝变化特征,分析水库调度在应对旱涝急转和连续枯水年中发挥的作用.结果显示:在月尺度,利津站SRI评估结果以正常至中旱为主,旱涝急转事件较少,且集中于汛期与非汛期的过渡时段;在年尺度,超过 60%的年份被评估为正常或轻旱,且SRI对旱涝的评估结果与采用距平值的丰枯评估结果的一致性较好;在多年尺度,利津站发生了 3 次连续丰水年和 2 次连续枯水年,连续枯水年持续时间较长.随着水库调蓄能力的增强,已经能够较好地应对黄河旱涝急转事件,但对连续枯水年的应对能力不足.
Characteristics of Drought and Wetness in the Yellow River and Its Countermeasures
In order to scientifically identify the characteristics of drought and wetness in the Yellow River and the coping capacity,this paper put forward a judgment method of continuous wet years and continuous dry years,used the Standardized Runoff Index(SRI)and the Stand-ardized Drought-Wetness Abrupt Alteration Index(SDWAI)to identify the characteristics of runoff changes at Lijin Station of the Yellow Riv-er from 1956 to 2020,and analyzed the role of reservoir operation in coping with the drought-wetness abrupt alteration events and continuous dry years.The results show that on a monthly scale,the SRI assessment results of Lijin Station are mainly normal to moderate drought,with only a few drought-wetness abrupt alteration events which mainly happen during the transition period between flood season and non-flood sea-son.On an annual scale,more than 60%of the years are assessed as normal or light drought,and the SRI assessment results are consistent with the assessment results using anomaly value.On a multi-year scale,there are 3 continuous wet years and 2 continuous dry years at Lijin Station,and the continuous dry years last for a long time.With the enhancement of reservoir regulation and storage capacity,drought-wetness abrupt alteration events are handled well,but the capacity to cope with continuous dry years is insufficient.

drought-wetness abrupt alterationcontinuous wet yearscontinuous dry yearsjudgment methodreservoir operationYellow River

靖娟、赵鑫、梅瑞萱、尚文绣

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黄河勘测规划设计研究院有限公司,河南 郑州 450003

中国人民大学 农业与农村发展学院,北京 100089

旱涝急转 连续丰水年 连续枯水年 判定方法 水库调度 黄河

国家重点研发计划项目河南省重大科技专项

2022YFC3202300201300311400

2024

人民黄河
水利部黄河水利委员会

人民黄河

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.494
ISSN:1000-1379
年,卷(期):2024.46(7)