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基于组合赋权的河南省洪涝灾害综合承灾力评价

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为提升洪涝灾害防灾减灾能力,以河南省为例,构建涵盖防灾、抗灾、救灾和恢复能力的洪涝灾害综合承灾力评价指标体系,采用AHP-熵组合赋权法和综合评价法评估河南省洪涝灾害综合承灾力.结果表明:1)河南省洪涝灾害综合承灾力呈现一定的规律性变化,综合承灾能力、救灾能力分布特征基本一致,整体上豫中>豫西南>豫东北>豫东>豫东南≥豫西北.中等及以上综合承灾力区域占总面积的 66.67%,中等以下区域占总面积的 33.33%.豫南的防灾能力最强,豫北和豫中的防灾能力较弱;豫西南—东北一线抗灾能力较强,豫西北和东南地区较弱;恢复能力基本上由豫西北向豫东南递减.2)从各市(示范区)承灾力情况看,信阳市防灾能力最强,济源示范区的防灾、抗灾能力最弱;郑州市抗灾、救灾和恢复能力最强,三门峡市的救灾能力最弱,驻马店市的恢复能力最弱.河南省洪涝灾害综合承灾力整体上处于中等偏低水平,需要制定合理的策略来提升洪涝灾害综合承灾力.
Study on Comprehensive Disaster Bearing Capacity Evaluation of Flood Disaster in Henan Province Based on Combination Weighting
In order to improve the flood disaster prevention and mitigation capacity,taking Henan Province as the study area,the paper built a comprehensive flood disaster bearing capacity evaluation index system covering disaster prevention capacity,disaster resistance capacity,disaster relief capacity and recovery capacity,and assessed the comprehensive flood disaster bearing capacity of Henan Province by using AHP-entropy combination assignment method and comprehensive evaluation index model.The results show that a)the comprehensive flood disaster bearing capacity of Henan Province shows certain regular changes,and the distribution characteristics of comprehensive disaster bearing capacity and disaster relief capacity are basically the same,overall the central region>southwest region>northeast region>east re-gion>southeast region≥northwest region.South region has the strongest disaster prevention capacity,while the north and central regions have weaker disaster prevention capacity;cities in the southwest-northeast regions have stronger disaster resilience,while cities in the north-west-southeast regions are weaker;recovery capacity basically decreases from northwest to southeast.The area with medium and above com-prehensive disaster-bearing capacity accounts for 66.67%of the total area,and the area with lower medium capacity accounts for 33.33%of the total area.b)In terms of the disaster-bearing capacity of each city(pilot area),Xinyang City has the strongest disaster prevention capac-ity and the pilot area of Jiyuan has the weakest disaster prevention capacity and disaster relief capacity.Zhengzhou City has the strongest dis-aster prevention capacity,disaster relief capacity and recovery capacity,and Sanmenxia City has the weakest disaster relief capacity.Zhuma-dian City has the weakest recovery capacity.The comprehensive disaster bearing capacity of flood disaster in Henan Province is at a medium and low level on the whole,so it is necessary to formulate reasonable strategies to improve the comprehensive disaster bearing capacity of flood disaster.

flood disasterintegrated disaster resilienceanalytic hierarchy processentropy weight methodHenan Province

程书波、李冲、刘玉

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河南理工大学 应急管理学院,河南 焦作 454000

中国科学院 空天信息创新研究院,北京 100101

洪涝灾害 综合承灾力 层次分析法 熵权法 河南省

国家社会科学基金资助项目国家自然科学基金面上项目

20BJY04341771393

2024

人民黄河
水利部黄河水利委员会

人民黄河

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.494
ISSN:1000-1379
年,卷(期):2024.46(7)