Study on the Current Situation of Water Use and Water Demand Forecast in the Yellow River Basin
The purpose of this study is to investigate the current water use situation of the Yellow River Basin and to assess the scale of future water demand.Based on water consumption data from 1988 to 2021,the current water consumption situation in the Yellow River Basin was analyzed,and the Holt linear trend method,the GM(1,1)grey prediction model,the quota method and the multiple linear regression meth-od were used to forecast the water demand in the Yellow River Basin in 2035.The results show that the growth of total water use in the Yellow River Basin from 1988 to 2021 shows three stages of a substantial reduction stage(1988-2003),a rapid growth stage(2004-2015)and a slow reduction stage(2016-2021);The structure of water use in the basin has changed significantly,with the proportion of water used in ag-riculture and industry declining significantly,with an average annual decline rate of 0.83%and 0.53%respectively;Among the four predic-tion methods,the multiple linear regression prediction is better,with a predicted water demand of 53.741 billion m3in 2035.The increase in water demand may lead to greater pressure on water supply and pose a threat to the sustainability of water resources.
water demand forecastquota methodmultiple linear regression methodgrey prediction modelYellow River Basin
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