摘要
为了更好地预测甘肃省的干旱时空变化特征,按照甘肃省气候类型和地理特征将其划分为 4 个气候分区,计算未来 76a(2024-2099 年)的季、年尺度的标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI-3、SPEI-12),并结合Mann-Kendall突变检验、空间插值等方法预估CMIP6 气候模式中 4 种情景下甘肃省未来 76a的气温、降水量以及干旱演变状况.结果表明:CMIP6 模式中各情景下甘肃省不同分区 2024-2099 年气温和降水量都随着时间推移呈现上升趋势,不同情景下气温和降水量的气候倾向率由小到大依次为SSP126、SSP245、SSP370、SSP585;CMIP6 模式中各情景下甘肃省 2024-2099 年在春、夏、秋季表现为干旱化的发展趋势,由湿润转变为干旱的突变年份都集中在 2040-2060 年,冬季表现为湿润化的发展趋势,SSP126 情景下由干旱转变为湿润的突变年份在 2033 年,其余情景下都在 2040-2060 年;轻旱和特旱在SSP370 情景下发生频率最高,中旱在SSP245 情景下发生频率最高,重旱在SSP585 情景下发生频率最高;甘肃省各气候情景下不同气候分区的不同等级干旱发生频率由大到小依次为轻旱、中旱、重旱、特旱.
Abstract
Gansu Province is located in an ecologically fragile area,with complex climate conditions,high probability and wide range of drought.In order to better study the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of drought in Gansu Province,it was divided into four cli-mate zones according to the climate type and geographical characteristics and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration indices(SPEI-3 and SPEI-12)at quarterly and annual scales for the next 76 years(2024-2099)were calculated.Under the four scenarios of SSP126,SSP245,SSP370 and SSP585,Mann Kendall mutation test,spatial interpolation and other methods were used to estimate the temperature,precipitation,and drought evolution status of Gansu Province in the future 80 in the CMIP6 climate model.The main conclusion is as follows:In the CMIP6 model,the temperature and precipitation in different regions of Gansu Province in the future from 2024 to 2099 show an upward trend over time under different scenarios and the climate tendency rate of temperature and precipitation under different scenarios is from small to large as SSP126,SSP245,SSP370 and SSP585.Under the SSP126,SSP245,SSP370 and SSP585 scenarios in the CMIP6 model,Gansu Province will show the development trend of drought in spring,summer and autumn in the coming 2024 to 2099.The mutation years from hu-mid to arid are concentrated between 2040 and 2060.In winter,there is a trend of wetting,with a sudden change from drought to humidifica-tion in the SSP121 scenario occurring in 2033,and other scenarios occurring between 2040 and 2060.The frequency of different types of drought is different between different scenarios.Light drought and extreme drought have the highest frequency under the SSP370 scenario,moderate drought has the highest frequency under the SSP245 scenario,and severe drought has the highest frequency under the SSP585 sce-nario.The frequency of different levels of drought in different climatic regions of Gansu Province under different climatic scenarios is from large to small of light drought,moderate drought,severe drought and extreme drought.
基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51969012)
甘肃省教育厅产业支撑计划项目(2021CYZC-27)
甘肃省教育厅产业支撑计划项目(2021CYZC-33)
济南市水务科技项目(JNSWKJ202206)
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据