Prediction of Future Drought Evolution in Different Climatic Zones in Gansu Province Based on CMIP6
Gansu Province is located in an ecologically fragile area,with complex climate conditions,high probability and wide range of drought.In order to better study the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of drought in Gansu Province,it was divided into four cli-mate zones according to the climate type and geographical characteristics and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration indices(SPEI-3 and SPEI-12)at quarterly and annual scales for the next 76 years(2024-2099)were calculated.Under the four scenarios of SSP126,SSP245,SSP370 and SSP585,Mann Kendall mutation test,spatial interpolation and other methods were used to estimate the temperature,precipitation,and drought evolution status of Gansu Province in the future 80 in the CMIP6 climate model.The main conclusion is as follows:In the CMIP6 model,the temperature and precipitation in different regions of Gansu Province in the future from 2024 to 2099 show an upward trend over time under different scenarios and the climate tendency rate of temperature and precipitation under different scenarios is from small to large as SSP126,SSP245,SSP370 and SSP585.Under the SSP126,SSP245,SSP370 and SSP585 scenarios in the CMIP6 model,Gansu Province will show the development trend of drought in spring,summer and autumn in the coming 2024 to 2099.The mutation years from hu-mid to arid are concentrated between 2040 and 2060.In winter,there is a trend of wetting,with a sudden change from drought to humidifica-tion in the SSP121 scenario occurring in 2033,and other scenarios occurring between 2040 and 2060.The frequency of different types of drought is different between different scenarios.Light drought and extreme drought have the highest frequency under the SSP370 scenario,moderate drought has the highest frequency under the SSP245 scenario,and severe drought has the highest frequency under the SSP585 sce-nario.The frequency of different levels of drought in different climatic regions of Gansu Province under different climatic scenarios is from large to small of light drought,moderate drought,severe drought and extreme drought.
standardized precipitation evapotranspiration indexdroughtCMIP6projectionGansu Province
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