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水资源短缺地区多能互补发电与水资源综合利用竞争关系

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我国西北地区是"西电东送"的能源基地,亦是水资源匮乏且生态系统较为脆弱的地区,围绕水资源产生的竞争关系相对突出.针对该关系,建立了梯级水库调度模型,以发电量最大、适宜生态偏差系数最小为目标,兼顾多能互补的出力波动平抑要求,获得发电、生态等综合效益较优的调度方案,并剖析水资源短缺条件下发电与生态之间的竞争关系;引入协调性等指标定量评价调度风险,并采用模糊综合评价法计算调度方案的评分,从生态供水风险和多目标竞争关系两个方面评价了调度方案的优劣.以黄河上游为对象的实例研究表明:多能互补发电量越多,生态偏差系数越大,特别是枯水年的生态偏差系数变化较明显,最大值与最小值相差 0.069;枯水年不同调度方案的变化过程存在明显偏差,不同方案的生态偏差系数相差超过 2%,适当减小发电量可大幅提升生态效益;非劣解前沿端点的评分较低,为 0.171,拐点的评分较高,为 0.193.
Study on the Competitive Relationship Between Multi-Energy Complementary Power Generation and Comprehensive Utilization of Water Resources in Water Shortage Areas
The northwest of China is the energy base of"power transmission from west to east".It is also an area with scarce water resources and relatively fragile ecosystems,the competitive relationship around water resources is relatively prominent.In view of this relationship,a model for cascade reservoirs dispatching was established with the goal of maximizing power generation,and minimizing the deviation be-tween the discharge flow and the appropriate ecological flow,at the same time,counting the multi-energy complementary output fluctuation stabilization demand,obtained a dispatching plan with optimal comprehensive benefits such as power generation and ecology,and the com-petitive relationship between power generation and ecology under the condition of water shortage was analyzed;the indexes such as coordina-tion were introduced to quantitatively calculate the dispatching risk,and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was adopted to calculate the score of the dispatching scheme,the advantages and disadvantages of the dispatching scheme were evaluated from the two dimensions of ecological water supply risk and multi-objective competition relation.The case study on the upper reaches of the Yellow River shows that the more multi-energy complementary power generation,the greater ecological deviation coefficient,especially in low-flow years,the ecological deviation coefficient changes obviously,the difference between the maximum and the minimum is 0.069.In low-flow years,there are obvious deviations in different dispatching decisions,and the difference of ecological deviation coefficient between different decisions is more than 2%,the ecological benefits can be greatly enhanced by properly reducing the power generation;the lower score of the front end of the non-in-ferior solution is 0.171,and the higher score of the inflection point is 0.193.

competitive relationmultiple goalsmulti-energy complementaryrisk quantificationUpper Yellow River

董得福、段茗续、曾坤、姚华明、王现勋

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青海黄河上游水电开发有限责任公司,青海西宁 810008

长江大学油气地球化学与环境湖北省重点实验室,湖北武汉 430100

长江大学 资源与环境学院,湖北 武汉 430100

中国长江电力股份有限公司,湖北 宜昌 443000

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竞争关系 多目标 多能互补 风险量化 黄河上游

国家自然科学基金面上项目

51979198

2024

人民黄河
水利部黄河水利委员会

人民黄河

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.494
ISSN:1000-1379
年,卷(期):2024.46(7)