Impact of Climate Change on the West Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project and Recommendations
The South-to-North Water Diversion Project is a critical component of the national water network,with the West Route construc-tion serving as a crucial measure to alleviate water resources shortages in northwestern and northern China.The water resources pattern in the diversion and receiving areas of the West Route under climate change directly affects the planning,construction and operational strategies of the project.Based on historical observed hydro-climatic data and future climate model scenarios projections,impact of climate change on the water resources in the diversion and receiving areas of the West Route was assessed by employing the statistical analysis and hydrological modeling method.The results indicate that a)from 1961 to 2020,climatic conditions in the water diversion and receiving areas of the West Route are characterized by a warming and humidifying trend,with a slight increase in runoff in the diversion area and a significant decrease in runoff in the receiving area.b)In the medium-term future(2035)and long-term future(2050),temperatures in both the diversion and receiving areas are projected to rise significantly,with precipitation showing a non-significant increase.Runoff in the diversion area is expec-ted to increase by 1.42%and 2.08%for the medium-term and long-term futures respectively,compared with the baseline period(1961-2000),while runoff in the receiving area is projected to decrease by 1.02%and 0.28%respectively.c)Under future climate change scenari-os,the annual runoff in the water transfer area is relatively stable and can meet the demand for water transfer,while the annual runoff in the receiving area will slightly decrease,and the demand for inter-basin water transfer will increase.In order to ensure the long-term stable opera-tion of the West Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion project,it is suggested to strengthen the uncertainty research of climate change and its impact,and formulate scientific and reasonable countermeasures to cope with the challenge of possible water shortage in the future.
climate changeRCCC-WBM modelwater resourcesWest Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project
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