黄河中游典型支流水文连通性变化规律及洪水效应
Temporal and Spatial Variation of Hydrological Connectivity and Its Effects on Flood Probability of Typical Tributaries in the Middle Reaches of the Yellow River
蒋晓辉 1楚楚 2聂桐 1张一驰 1邓椿3
作者信息
- 1. 西北大学 城市与环境学院,陕西 西安 710127
- 2. 黄河水利委员会 郑州水文水资源勘测局,河南 郑州 450040
- 3. 西北大学 城市与环境学院,陕西 西安 710127;运城学院 经济管理系,山西 运城 044000
- 折叠
摘要
明确水文连通性和洪水发生概率之间的关系,是科学制定洪水管理措施的重要依据.基于窟野河流域水文观测数据和遥感数据,采用修正的水文连通性指数,测算了窟野河流域水文连通性,借助空间探索工具和统计检验方法Theil-SenMedian、Mann-Ken-dall等,分析了水文连通性指数的时空演化特征,并采用有序逻辑回归模型探究了水文连通性指数对洪水量级发生概率的影响.结果表明:窟野河流域水文连通性指数的年平均值总体呈下降趋势,窟野河流域水文连通性指数高高集聚分布在窟野河下游的土石山区,低低集聚主要分布在乌兰木伦河流域,以康巴什区、伊金霍洛旗最为凸显;水文连通性以极显著减小和显著减小为主;窟野河场次洪水的发生频率和年最大洪峰流量均呈现下降趋势,且集中在夏季,其中温家川站最大洪峰流量在 1998 年发生突变;水文连通性指数对洪水量级发生概率具有正向影响,当其他变量固定不变时,水文连通性指数每增大一个单位,洪水变为更大量级的概率增大 5.999 倍.
Abstract
Clarifying the relationship between hydrological connectivity and flood probability is an important basis for scientific development of flood management measures.In this paper,the hydrologic connectivity index(RIC)of the Kuye River(KYH)catchment was measured by using a modified hydrologic connectivity model based on hydrologic observations and remote sensing data.Advanced spatial analysis tools and statistical tests,including the Theil-Sen Median and Mann-Kendall methods,were employed to analyze the spatial-temporal evolution patterns of RIC.An ordered logistic regression model was then used to examine the influence of RIC on flood probability.The results indicate a signifi-cant decline in the yearly average RIC value.Significant reductions in RIC are primarily observed in specific regions.Spatially,RIC concen-trations with high-high agglomeration are in the downstream rock mountainous areas of KYH.Notably,low-low aggregation is found in the Ulan Mulun River catchment,particularly in the Kangbashi and Yijinhuoluo.The trend of long-term significance change is dominated by highly significant decrease and significant decrease.Floods in KYH are mainly concentrated in the summer,with their frequency and annual maximum instantaneous streamflow(AMS)showing a significant downward trend.The mutation point of AMS is found to be in 1998 by the Mann-Kendall test in KYH.The RIC significantly contributes to the probability of flood occurrence.Specifically,when all other variables are fixed and unchanged,for each unit increase in the RIC,the probability of a flood becoming a larger magnitude increases by 5.999 times.
关键词
水文连通性/时空分布/有序逻辑回归/洪水效应/窟野河流域Key words
hydrological connectivity/temporal and spatial variation/ordinal logistic regression/flood effects/KYH catchment引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据