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黄河流域数字经济-技术创新-生态环境协整分析

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为探索黄河流域数字经济、技术创新、生态环境三者之间的协整关系,基于 2011-2020 年黄河流域各省(区)面板数据,构建生态环境质量、数字经济发展水平、技术创新水平评价指标体系,采用泰尔指数对其时空演变特征和区域差异进行研究,运用ARDL协整检验模型、格兰杰因果检验方法分析三者之间的长期协整关系、短期动态影响及因果关系.结果表明:1)黄河流域生态环境质量、数字经济发展水平、技术创新水平在 2011-2020 年整体上均呈上升态势,在空间上地区间差异较大,生态环境质量呈"低低集聚、高高靠拢"格局,数字经济发展水平和技术创新水平呈东南高、西北低的格局;2)生态环境、数字经济、技术创新三者之间存在长期稳定的协整关系;3)数字经济、技术创新对生态环境的影响具有显著的正向效应,其中数字经济影响生态环境的效应明显大于技术创新的,数字经济影响生态环境的短期效应大于长期效应,而技术创新影响生态环境的短期效应小于长期效应;4)技术创新对数字经济的影响具有极显著正向效应,其中长期效应大于短期效应.提出了产业结构调整、加强污染防治、做好协同发展顶层设计等建议.
Co-Integration Analysis of Digital Economy-Technological Innovation-Ecological Environment in the Yellow River Basin
In order to explore the co-integration relationship among the digital economy,technological innovation and ecological environment in the Yellow River Basin,based on the panel data of provinces(regions)in the Yellow River Basin from 2011 to 2020,an evaluation index system for ecological environment quality,digital economy development level and technological innovation level was built,and the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics and regional differences were studied by using Theil index.ARDL model and Granger causality test were used to analyze the long-term co-integration relationship,short-term dynamic influence and causality between the three.The results show that a)the ecological environment quality,digital economy development level and technological innovation level of the Yellow River Basin are on the rise in 2011-2020 as a whole,and there are large spatial differences between regions,with the ecological environment quality showing a pattern of"low-low agglomeration and high-high convergence",and the digital economy development level and technological innovation level showing a pattern of high in the southeast and low in the northwest.b)There is a long-term stable co-integration relationship among ecological environment,digital economy and technological innovation.c)The impact of digital economy and technological innovation on the ecological environment has a significant positive effect,in which the effect of digital economy on the ecological environment is significantly larger than that of technological innovation,the short-term effect of digital economy on the ecological environment is larger than that of long-term effect,while the short-term effect of technological innovation on the ecological environment is correspondingly smaller than that of the long-term effect.d)The impact of technological innovation on the digital economy all has a highly significant positive effect,in which the long-term effect is greater than the short-term effect.Suggestions on industrial structure adjustment,pollution prevention and control,and top-level de-sign for coordinated development are put forward.

ecological environmentdigital economytechnological innovationco-integrationYellow River Basin

庞博、傅尧、李晓星、狄雅肖、张歌、王丽芳、苏兆瑞

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中国环境科学研究院 环境基准与风险评估国家重点实验室,北京 100012

准格尔旗矿区事业发展中心,内蒙古 准格尔旗 017100

生态环境 数字经济 技术创新 协整 黄河流域

国家重点研发计划项目

2021YFC3201101

2024

人民黄河
水利部黄河水利委员会

人民黄河

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.494
ISSN:1000-1379
年,卷(期):2024.46(11)