Spatial and Temporal Distribution Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation Index in the Yellow River Basin Under Future Climate Scenarios
The study aimed to reproduce and predict the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of extreme precipitation events in the Yellow River Basin,a region sensitive to climate change.The study used the Delta downscaling method and multiple evaluation metrics to es-tablish a CMIP6 climate model dataset.Twelve extreme precipitation indices are selected to investigate the distribution characteristics of ex-treme precipitation.The results show that for both the historical period(1980-2014)and future scenarios(2022-2100)under SSP126,SSP245,and SSP585,the spatial patterns of the multi-year averages of eleven extreme precipitation indices,excluding the consecutive dry days(CDD),are similar across the Yellow River Basin.Overall,these indices exhibit a decreasing trend from southeast to northwest,with a greater variability observed along the north-south axis compared to the east-west axis.Interannually,the eleven extreme precipitation indices show an insignificant fluctuating upward trend,which intensifies with increasing radiative forcing scenarios.On the whole,the extreme pre-cipitation indices display a fluctuating upward trend,but the trend is not statistically significant.
future climate modelsextreme precipitation indexclimate scenarioYellow River Basin
万方数据
维普
