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黄河流域碳排放脱钩与能源安全关系研究

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为了给全面推进黄河流域高质量发展和实现"双碳"目标等提供参考,以 2005-2022 年为研究期,构建能源安全指标体系,采用熵值法测度黄河流域各省份能源安全水平,采用Tapio模型测度黄河流域各省份碳排放脱钩状态,采用固定效应模型对碳排放脱钩与能源安全的关系进行实证分析,结果表明:1)黄河流域各省份能源安全水平在研究期均呈上升趋势,但研究期末能源安全压力依然较大且省份间差别较大,能源安全形势整体上不容乐观;2)黄河流域各省份碳排放脱钩状态在研究期向好发展,多数省份曾呈现强脱钩状态,但脱钩状态不稳定即难以保持最佳状态;3)能源安全水平的提高对黄河流域碳排放脱钩具有促进效应,这种促进效应在 2012 年以后更加显著。提出了系统化提高黄河流域能源安全水平、加快"碳达峰"进程和加快转变经济发展方式等政策建议。
Study on the Relationship Between Carbon Emission Decoupling and Energy Security in the Yellow River Basin
In order to provide a reference for comprehensively promoting the high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin and realizing the goal of"dual carbon",this paper took 2005-2022 as the study period,built an energy security index system,adopted the entropy meth-od to measure the energy security level of provinces in the Yellow River Basin and adopted the Tapio model to measure the decoupling state of carbon emissions of provinces in the Yellow River Basin.The relationship between carbon decoupling and energy security was empirically ana-lyzed by using the fixed effect model.The results show that a)the energy security level of all provinces in the Yellow River Basin shows an upward trend during the study period,but the energy security pressure is still large at the end of the study period and the difference between provinces is large.The energy security situation is not optimistic on the whole.b)The decoupling state of carbon emissions in the provinces of the Yellow River Basin shows a good development during the study period.Most provinces have a strong decoupling state,but the decoupling state is unstable,meaning that it is difficult to maintain the best state.c)The improvement of energy security has a promoting effect on the decoupling of carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin,and this promoting effect is more significant after 2012.Some policy suggestions are put forward to systematically improve the level of energy security in the Yellow River Basin,accelerate the process of"carbon peaking"and accelerate the transformation of economic development mode.

energy securitycarbon emissions decouplingTapio modelfixed effect modelempirical analysisYellow River Basin

高建刚、徐凯、刘津澔、何丽娜

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聊城大学 商学院,山东 聊城 252000

能源安全 碳排放脱钩 Tapio模型 固定效应模型 实证分析 黄河流域

2025

人民黄河
水利部黄河水利委员会

人民黄河

北大核心
影响因子:0.494
ISSN:1000-1379
年,卷(期):2025.47(1)