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黄河流域生态韧性与经济高质量发展协同演化规律研究

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为探究黄河流域生态韧性与经济高质量发展协同关系及其演化规律,在生态韧性与经济高质量发展协同演化理论分析基础上,按照抵抗力、适应力、恢复力 3 个维度构建生态韧性评价指标体系,按照经济规模、经济效率、经济结构、经济持续性 4 个维度构建经济高质量发展能力评价指标体系,以 2012-2022 年为研究期、以黄河流域九省(区)为测算单元,采用熵权-TOPSIS法测度各省(区)逐年生态韧性、经济高质量发展能力,运用哈肯模型测算各省(区)逐年生态韧性与经济高质量发展协同水平。结果表明:1)黄河流域整体生态韧性在研究期高于经济高质量发展能力且呈现稳步上升趋势,经济高质量发展能力在 2012-2019 年稳步上升、在 2020-2022 年出现小幅波动;2)黄河流域生态韧性-经济高质量发展复合系统尚处于低级有序阶段,在二者协同演化过程中,经济高质量发展能力为序参量、主导协同发展演化的路径与方向并对生态韧性产生协同提升效应,而生态韧性对经济高质量发展有微弱抑制作用;3)黄河流域生态韧性与经济高质量发展协同水平在研究期呈现稳步上升趋势,在空间上呈现东高西低的格局,各省(区)协同水平在 2018 年以前差异较大、2018 年以后差异缩小。
Study on the Co-Evolutionary Patterns of Ecological Resilience and High-Quality Economic Development in the Yellow River Basin
In order to explore the synergistic relationship and evolutionary patterns between ecological resilience and high-quality economic development in the Yellow River Basin,we first conducted a theoretical analysis of their co-evolution.An evaluation index system for ecologi-cal resilience was built based on three dimensions of resistance,adaptability and recovery.Similarly,an evaluation index system for high-quality economic development was established based on four dimensions of economic scale,economic efficiency,economic structure and eco-nomic sustainability.Using the period from 2012 to 2022 as the study timeframe and the nine provinces(regions)of the Yellow River Basin as the calculation units,the entropy-weight TOPSIS method was employed to measure the annual ecological resilience and high-quality eco-nomic development capacity of each province(region).The Haken model was then used to calculate the annual synergy level between ecolog-ical resilience and high-quality economic development for each province(region).The results indicate that a)overall ecological resilience in the Yellow River Basin is higher than the capacity for high-quality economic development throughout the study period,showing a steady up-ward trend.The capacity for high-quality economic development is increased steadily from 2012 to 2019,with slight fluctuations from 2020 to 2022.b)The ecological resilience-high quality economic development composite system of the Yellow River Basin is still at a low-level order-ly stage.In the process of their co-evolution,the capacity for high-quality economic development acts as the order parameter,guiding the path and direction of synergistic development and exerting a synergistic enhancement effect on ecological resilience.However,ecological re-silience has a slightly inhibitory effect on high-quality economic development.c)The level of synergy between ecological resilience and high-quality economic development in the Yellow River Basin shows a steady upward trend during the study period,with a spatial pattern of higher levels in the east and lower levels in the west.The differences in synergy levels among the provinces(regions)are significant before 2018,and are narrowed after 2018.

ecosystem resiliencehigh-quality economic developmentco-evolutionHarken modelYellow River Basin

赵丹宁、薛晔、冯梅

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太原理工大学 经济管理学院,山西 太原 030024

生态韧性 经济高质量发展 协同 哈肯模型 黄河流域

2025

人民黄河
水利部黄河水利委员会

人民黄河

北大核心
影响因子:0.494
ISSN:1000-1379
年,卷(期):2025.47(1)