摘要
研究采用皮尔逊相关性分析、Dagum基尼系数、GTWR模型和灰色预测模型等方法,依据2000、2010、2020年全国人口普查数据,以人口收缩幅度大、老龄化水平高的黑龙江省为研究样本,从县域尺度刻画人口收缩程度、人口老龄化水平时空格局并揭示二者时空耦合关系,剖析人口老龄化影响因素,预测人口规模及老龄化发展趋势.研究表明:①20年间人口规模呈由低速增长向轻度收缩到重度、严重收缩的演变过程.收缩高值区主要分布于西北部、南部的农业和林业地区,低值区主要分布于市辖区.②人口老龄化水平总体呈成年型1期——老年型Ⅰ期—老年型Ⅲ期梯度上升态势.高值区主要分布于东南部的林业地区,低值区主要分布于边境口岸城市.③市辖区和县域类型单元均表现为人口收缩与人口老龄化增长的高度正相关关系.不同收缩类型人口老龄化水平差异较大,人口收缩程度与人口老龄化水平呈现空间一致性.④迁出率、老年人口基数、人均受教育年限、死亡率、人均GDP对人口老龄化水平呈正向影响,出生率、迁入率、每千人拥有床位数对人口老龄化水平呈负向影响.⑤未来十年区域人口规模将延续下降趋势,人口老龄化水平呈加速增长态势.
Abstract
The authors use Pearson correlation analysis,Dagum Gini coefficient,GTWR model and grey pre-diction model and other methods,based on the national population census data in 2000,2010 and 2020,tak-ing Heilongjiang province,which has a large population contraction and a high level of aging,reveal the spatio-temporal coupling relationship between the two,and analyze the factors influencing population aging,Predict population size and aging development trend.Research shows that:1)Over the past 20 years,the population size has undergone an evolutionary process from slow growth to mild contraction to severe and severe contraction.2)The overall level of population aging shows a gradient upward trend from adult type Ⅰto elderly type Ⅰ to elderly type Ⅲ.3)Both municipal and county-level units exhibit a highly positive correla-tion between population contraction and population aging growth.4)The migration rate,elderly population base,per capita education years,mortality rate,and per capita GDP have a positive impact on the level of population aging.5)In the next decade,the population size of the region will continue to decline,and the level of population aging will be accelerating.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据