摘要
利用武器转让和世界银行数据库对"一带一路"沿线军事技术转移网络格局和驱动因素进行研究,结果发现:"一带一路"沿线军事技术转移规模先升后降,印度成为最大的军事技术转入国,中国军事技术优势区逐步扩大并趋于连片生长;军事技术转移网络呈两极分化特征和核心—边缘结构,中国成为改变网络结构的关键力量;俄罗斯是军事技术转移最大流网络的绝对主导,但影响力和控制力呈下降趋势;美国对域内军事技术转移规模迅速增长,军事影响力日益向中国周边渗透,空间布局符合边缘地带范围并对中国形成合围态势;地理距离、经贸关系、地缘关系、科技创新能力、国家发展水平、资本投入、资源禀赋和政治稳定性对转出国影响显著,而对转入国影响不明显.
Abstract
This paper utilizes the Stockholm Institute's arms transfer data and the World Bank's database,adopts network analysis and negative binomial regression and other methods to study the pattern and driving factors of the military technology transfer network along the B&R,and analyzes the influence of the US,and the study finds that:First,the scale of military technology transfer from countries(regions)along the B&R is on a rising trend.Secondly,the military technology transfer network has obvious polarization characteristics and core-marginal structure;Third,Russia is the absolute leader of the largest flow network of military tech-nology transfer,but the network influence and control is on a decreasing trend,and the network influence of China and Turkey is improving significantly.Fourth,the scale of military science and technology transfer from the United States to countries(regions)along B&R Initiative has increased rapidly by 1.52 times,the in-creasing penetration of military influence into China's neighbourhood and the spatial layout of the military-technical transfer is consistent with the scope of Spearman's Rimland theory and creates a posture of encircle-ment of China.Fifth,Geographical distance,economic and trade relations,geopolitical relations,science and technology innovation capacity,national development level,capital investment,resource endowment and po-litical stability have significant effects on the scale of military technology transfer through the transferring country.
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