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彭州市本地化环境空气质量健康指数(AQHI)构建

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为了科学评估和系统表征大气污染对人群健康的潜在风险,研究通过采用广义相加时间序列模型(Generalized Additive Models,GAM),拟合了彭州市大气污染浓度与人群呼吸系统疾病就诊人数的暴露-反应关系,获取了相应的回归系数(β),构建了彭州市环境空气健康指数(Air Quality Health Index,AQHI)的计算方法并分级分类。结果表明,NO2、PM10、PM2。5、O3与人群呼吸系统疾病之间具有统计学意义上相关性,且最佳滞后时间及其相对危险度(Relative Risk,RR)存在差异,分别为0天(1。068)、7 天(1。025)、7 天(1。023)、1 天(1。028),相应的回归系数(β)分别为 0。0038872、0。0006119、0。0009031、0。0004203;构建的 AQHI 根据超额风险率(Extra-risk Rate,ER)共划分为4类11级,能够对大气污染潜在的健康风险进行评估,从而指导公众健康生活和出行,符合未来环境健康管理的趋势。
Building of Air Quality Health Index(AQHI)in Pengzhou,Chengdu
In order to assess and characterize potential risks of air pollution to the health of people in a scientific and systematic way,a Generalized Additive Time-series Model(GAM)was used to fit the expose-response relationship between the concentration of atmospheric pollutants and the number of patients with respiratory diseases,and the regression coefficient(β)was obtained to establish the calculation method for the Air Quality Health Index(AQHI)in Pengzhou,Chengdu.The results showed that,NO2,PM10,PM2.5 and O3 were statistically correlated with respiratory diseases in the population,and the optimal lag time and Relative Risk(RR)were 0d(1.068),7d(1.025),7d(1.023)and 1d(1.028),respectively.The corresponding regression coefficients(β)were 0.0038872,0.0006119,0.0009031 and 0.0004203,respectively.The AQHI was divided into 11 levels in 4 classes according to the Extra-risk Rate(ER),which can be used to comprehensively assess the potential risks of air pollution to people health,and effectively guide the public to live a healthy life and travel in a healthy way,which is in line with the future trend of environmental health management.

Air Quality Health Index(AQHI)time-series analysisrespiratory diseasesexposure-response relationshipair pollution

赖长邈、田晓刚、姜涛、刘思瑶、王志凯、周美君

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四川省生态环境科学研究院,成都 610041

环境空气质量健康指数(AQHI) 时间序列分析 呼吸系统疾病 暴露-反应关系 大气污染

城市扬尘控制技术及应用示范&&

2016YFC02060052018JY0103

2024

四川环境
四川省环境保护科学研究院 四川省环境科学学会

四川环境

CSTPCD
影响因子:0.444
ISSN:1001-3644
年,卷(期):2024.43(1)
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