Prediction of Land Use Change and Carbon Effect Study under Territorial Spatial Planning Scenario:A Study on Dazhou
Territorial spatial planning is important for scientific and rational planning and using of limited land resources.In order to better play the role of territorial spatial planning in the regulation of territorial spatial pattern and optimal utilization of resources,Dazhou is taken as an example in this paper and two scenarios of land use changes are set by applying the CA-Markov model and the scenario prediction model to predict the land use structure change under the natural development scenario and the land spatial planning scenario of Dazhou in 2030.In addition,the carbon effect change caused by land use change in Dazhou under two scenarios was analyzed.The results show that the total carbon effect of the natural development scenario of Dazhou in 2030 will be 4.72 times that of the national spatial planning scenario.Under the national spatial planning scenario,the construction land area will be effectively controlled and the carbon emission will be significantly reduced.Therefore,the territorial spatial planning has a significant regulatory effect on the land use structure and carbon effect of Dazhou,which provides a decision-making reference for the sustainable development of Dazhou and a useful reference for similar areas in China.
CA-Markov modelscenario predictionland use changecarbon effectDazhou
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据
