农民工长期居留意愿的年龄-时期-队列效应分析
Age-Period-Cohort Effects on the Long-term Residence Intention of Rural Migrant Workers
杨舒雯 1詹韵秋2
作者信息
- 1. 西南财经大学社会发展研究院 四川成都 611130
- 2. 成都工业学院马克思主义学院 四川成都 611730
- 折叠
摘要
农民工是推动中国城镇化的动力源泉.农民工的城市长期居留意愿能在一定程度上反映城镇化质量,对其长期居留意愿水平及变动进行研究具有重要意义.基于 2012-2018 年CMDS数据,文章使用APC交叉分类随机效应模型分析农民工长期居留意愿在年龄、时期和队列三个维度上的变化趋势.研究发现:(1)农民工年龄对其长期居留意愿的影响呈倒"U"形分布.(2)从时期维度来看,近年来农民工长期居留意愿整体呈下降趋势.(3)从队列差异来看,长期居留意愿呈现出"两高两低"的特征.(4)性别、受教育程度、就业身份等因素具有不同的队列变迁趋势.提升农民工长期居留意愿应注重群体间的差异性,推动农民工融入城市,推动农民工市民化,进而实现高质量城镇化.
Abstract
Migrant workers play a crucial role in driving urbanization in China,and their desire to settle in cities re-flects the quality of urbanization to some extent.Therefore,studying the level and changes in migrant workers'long-term residence intentions is highly significant.This paper utilizes CMDS data from 2012 to 2018 and employs Hierarchical APC-Cross-Classified Random Effects Models to analyze changing trends in the aspects of age,period and cohort.The results show that(1)There is an inverted U-shaped curve in migrant workers'intentions for long-term residence as their ages increase;(2)The overall willingness for long-term residence decreases in recent years;(3)The cohort effect curve demonstrates two high sides and two low sides;(4)Gender,education,and job identity are factors that exhibit different co-hort changing trends.To enhance migrant workers'long-term residence intentions,the government should acknowledge the differences among groups,promote the integration of migrant workers into urban society,and facilitate their citizenship status to achieve high-quality urbanization.
关键词
农民工/长期居留意愿/年龄效应/时期效应/队列效应Key words
rural migrant workers/long-term residence intention/age effects/period effects/cohort effects引用本文复制引用
基金项目
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(JBK2307095)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据