Potential distribution of Monochamus alternatus Hope(Coleoptera:Cerambycidae)in China based on MaxEnt model and its response to climate change
Due to the global warming,the spatial distribution pattern of pests has changed greatly,which increases the difficulty of pest prevention.In this paper,using MaxEnt model and GIS method,the potential suitable distribution area of Monochamus alternatus in China was simulated.At the same time,the distribution range and spatial arrangement in three climate scenarios(RCP2.6,RCP4.5 and RCP8.5),and the movement law of its mean center were predicted,compared and analyzed.The results showed that all AUC values were over 0.95,and the accuracy was in an"excellent"state.Under current conditions,the suitable range of Monochamus alternatus in China was 20-41°N,90-125°E,which was distributed continuously from west to east and concentrated in the southeast of China.Under future climate scenarios,the moderately suitable area will decrease,while the lwo and high suitable areas will increase,and will spread to the high latitude and altitude areas,with RCP8.5 having the largest diffusion range.The mean center of the suitable area predicted to move northwest or northeast under different scenarios,and the migration trend was the most intense in the highest greenhouse gas emission scenario(RCP8.5).The results provide an effective means for rational zoning of Monochamus alternatus and a theoretical basis for coping with climate warming.
Monochamus alternatus HopeMaxEntglobal warmingsuitable areamean point migration
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