Regional Persistent Extreme Precipitation Events(RPEPEs),characterized by wide-range,long-time and high-intensity pre-cipitation,usually lead to severe disasters.Based on 7 RPEPEs occurred in Southwest China from 1999 to 2019,the sub-seasonal predic-tion performance of the FGOALS-f2 S2S model for RPEPEs in Southwest China was evaluated.The main results are as follows:FGOALS-f2 underestimated the summer precipitation in the Sichuan Basin and its surrounding areas,which resulted in the predicted extreme precip-itation thresholds being about 15 mm/d lower than the observations in the Sichuan Basin,Chongqing,and most of Guizhou,while the thresholds were close to observations in the high-altitude areas of western Sichuan and Yunnan.The simulation error of precipitation in-tensity further led to the underestimation of the intensity of RPEPEs and short-term extreme precipitation events in those regions,but the errors did not change with the prediction leading time.Regarding the occurrence probability of extreme precipitation,the probability of de-tection,false alarm ratio and Heidke skill score of the RPEPEs and short-term extreme precipitation events decreased rapidly within the leading 1～10 days and then remained nearly constant during the leading 11～30 days.However,the prediction performance of RPEPEs was significantly better than that of short-term extreme precipitation.It can be seen that the prediction skill of the occurrence probability of the RPEPEs is of higher scores,which can provide scientific reference for the sub-seasonal prediction of extreme precipitation in Southwest China.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
