首页|1961-2022年四川省区域性干旱过程识别及时空演变特征

1961-2022年四川省区域性干旱过程识别及时空演变特征

Identification and Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics of Regional Drought Processes in Sichuan Province from 1961 to 2022

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利用四川 142个国家气象站 1961-2022年逐日气温、降水资料,基于气象干旱综合指数(MCI)及其区域性干旱过程识别方法,分析四川区域性干旱时空变化特征.结果表明:(1)1961-2022年四川识别239次区域性干旱过程,平均3.9次/a,综合强度为较强等级以上占比 49.4%;过程开始 11月最多,9月最少;过程频次 1960年代和 1990年代偏少,1970 年代、1980年代和 21世纪以来相对偏多.(2)四川省区域性干旱过程的综合强度呈显著增强趋势,主要是过程影响范围增加趋势明显,平均每 10 a增加 3.7站,而过程强度和持续天数的变化趋势均不明显.(3)四川省各地干旱日数变化趋势各异,盆地及攀西地区干旱频发态势明显,常见 4种区域干旱分型,分别是盆西南型、盆东北型、盆西北型和攀西型.(4)2022年四川省发生 4次区域性干旱过程,过程频次接近常年水平,年度干旱综合评价为近 10年来偏强.区域性干旱过程识别结果与业务实际和灾情验证比较吻合,综合强度指标对干旱事件的影响有一定表征能力,可本地化业务应用于四川区域性干旱过程监测评估.
Using the daily temperature and precipitation data from 142 national meteorological stations in Sichuan from 1961 to 2022,based on the Meteorological Drought Comprehensive Index(MCI)and its regional drought process identification method,the spatiotem-poral variation characteristics of regional drought in Sichuan were analyzed.The results show that:(1)From 1961 to 2022,239 regional drought processes in Sichuan were identified,with an average of 3.9 times/a,and the comprehensive intensity above the strong level was 49.4%.The process started in November at most and September at least.The process frequency was relatively low in the 1960s and 1990s,and relatively high in the 1970s,1980s,and 21st century.(2)The comprehensive intensity of regional drought processes in Sichuan Province shows a significant increasing trend,mainly due to the significant increase in the scope of process impact,with an average in-crease of 3.7 stations every 10 years.However,the trend of changes in process intensity and duration days is not significant.(3)The trend of drought days varies across the Sichuan province,with frequent droughts occurring in the basin and Panxi region.There are four com-mon regional drought types,which are southwest basin type,northeast basin type,northwest basin type,and Panxi basin type.(4)In 2022,four regional drought processes occurred in Sichuan Province,and the frequency was close to the annual level.The comprehensive evalu-ation of annual drought showed that it was relatively strong in the past 10 years.The identification results of regional drought processes are in good agreement with the business practice and disaster verification.The comprehensive intensity index has a certain characterization ability on the impact of drought events,and can be localized and applied to the monitoring and evaluation of regional drought processes in Sichuan.

Regional drought process identificationMCI monitoring and evaluationSpatiotemporal characteristicsSichuan Province

邓彪、孙蕊、邢开瑜、张顺谦

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四川省气候中心/高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室,成都 610072

区域性干旱过程识别 MCI监测评估 时空变化特征 四川省

高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室科技发展基金项目

SCQXKJYJXMS202115

2024

高原山地气象研究
中国气象局成都高原气象研究所 中国气象学会高原气象学委员会

高原山地气象研究

CSTPCD
影响因子:1.313
ISSN:1674-2184
年,卷(期):2024.44(1)