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西南地区暴雨灾害集中度变化特征及其与环流指数的关系

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原文链接
  • NETL
  • NSTL
  • 万方数据
选取1971-2020年西南地区95个气象站点日降水资料,以降水集中指数(PCI)为基础,构建了暴雨灾害集中指数(PDCI),分析了该指数在西南地区的时空变化特征,并运用交叉小波变换和小波相干变换方法探究了西南地区PDCI与大气环流指数的关系.结果表明:近 50 a西南地区PDCI呈现增加趋势,其递增率为 0.09/10 a,暴雨灾害发生的机率增长;西南地区 75%的站点未来 PDCI指数呈现增加趋势,预测暴雨灾害发生将会更为频繁;西南地区 PDCI与 AO、NAO、NINO1+2、NINO3.4、NINO4、PDO、SOI均存在共振周期,在不同时间段内PDCI与上述多种大气环流指数的相关性存在差异;对应的相关系数介于-0.27～0.31之间,得到上述多种大气环流指数均对西南地区暴雨灾害集中度存在一定影响.
Characteristics of Rainstorm Disaster Concentration Index in Southwest China and its Relationship with Circulation Index
Using the daily precipitation data from 95 meteorological stations in southwest China from 1971 to 2020,based on the Pre-cipitation Concentration Index(PCI),the Rainstorm Disaster Concentration Index(PDCI)is constructed.The spatial and temporal distribu-tion characteristics of the PDCI in southwest China are calculated and analyzed,and the relationship between the PDCI values and the at-mospheric circulation index in the study area is discussed by using the cross wavelet transform and wavelet cross transform methods.The results showed that the PDCI in the study area showed an increasing trend with an increasing rate of 0.09/10a,and the probability of rain-storm disaster increased.The PDCI of three-quarters of the sites in the study area continued to show an increasing trend,and the occur-rence of heavy rain disasters would become more frequent.In Southwest China,there were resonance periods between PDCI and AO,NAO,NINO1+2,NINO3.4,NINO4,PDO and SOI.However,there were some differences in the correlation in different time domain.The correlation coefficient between PDCI and atmospheric circulation index fluctuated from-0.27 to 0.31.It is shown that the atmospheric cir-culation index is an important factor affecting the change of rainstorm disaster concentration in Southwest China.

Rainstorm disaster concentration indexChange characteristicAtmospheric circulationSouthwest region

鄢晓茜、肖天贵、王静

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成都信息工程大学云南自然灾害防御技术研发中心,昆明 650034

成都信息工程大学大气科学学院,成都 610225

中国飞行试验研究院,西安 710089

云南省机场集团有限公司,昆明 650000

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暴雨灾害集中度 变化特征 大气环流 西南地区

云南省重点研发计划云南省重点研发计划青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目(第二次)国家自然科学基金集成项目中国气象局创新发展专项

202203AC10006202203AC100052019QZKK01040891937301CXFZ2021Z010

2024

10.3969/j.issn.1674-2184.2024.02.011

高原山地气象研究
中国气象局成都高原气象研究所 中国气象学会高原气象学委员会

高原山地气象研究

CSTPCD
影响因子：1.313
ISSN：1674-2184
年,卷(期)：2024.44(2)