Analysis of Risk Factors and Establishment of Predictive Models for Short-Term Poor Prognosis in Emergency Patients with Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Diseases
Objective:To analyze the adverse risk factors of short-term poor prognosis in patients with emergency cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases and establish a prediction model.Methods:Clinical data of 150 patients with emergency cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases admitted to Xinjiang 474 Hospital from January 2020 to August 2023 were retrospectively analyzed,and they were divided into a poor prognosis group(n=33)and a good prognosis group(n=117)according to whether they died within 30 days of follow-up.Cox regression model was used to analyze the adverse risk factors for short-term prognosis of patients with emergency cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases,and the prediction model was established.Receiver operating characteristic curve(ROC)was used to analyze the value of the model.Results:The levels of lipoprotein-associated plasma phospholipase A2(Lp-PLA2),plasma pentametin 3(PTX3)and serum homocysteine(Hcy)in the poor prognosis group were higher than those in the good prognosis group,with statistical significance(P＜0.05).Cox regression analysis showed that the elevated levels of Lp-PLA2,PTX3 and Hcy were risk factors for poor short-term prognosis in patients with emergency cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases(P＜0.05).A nomogram prediction model was established based on risk factors.Clinical data of 150 patients were divided into the training set(n=105)and validation set(n=45)in a 7:3 ratio.The area under the curve of the ROC curve of the training set and validation set were 0.92 and 0.99,respectively.The calibration curve verifies that the prediction value of the model is consistent with the actual prediction value,and the decision curve analysis verifies that the probability threshold of the model is between 25.00%and 100.00%,which has certain practicability.Conclusion:The elevated levels of Lp-PLA2,Hcy and PTX3 are risk factors for poor short-term prognosis in patients with emergency cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases.The prediction model based on the risk factors is of good predictive value,and can provide reference for clinical application.
Cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseasesEmergency treatmentShort-termPoor prognosisRisk factorsModel establishment
万方数据
维普
