The Analysis and Measurement of Trade Potential and Trade Prospect between China and Central Asia Countries under the Background of the Silk Road Economic Belt
By constructing trade gravity model ,the authors analyze the trade potential and prospect between China and central Asia countries .The findings suggest that :The economic development level of two sides ,transportation cost ,tariff level and SCO are the main factors in the impact of export and total trade;economic development level and SCO have a positive impact on bilateral trade and the total export ,distance and tariff have hindered exports and bilateral trade ,w hile tariff have a stronger obstructive effect on bilateral trade . Before 2010 , the bilateral trade of China with Kazakhstan ,Tajikistan ,Kyrgyzstan ,Turkmenistan ,located in a“potential type” ,and after 2010 , located in a“creating potential type” .However ,except in 2009 ,Uzbekistan has been in a“potential type” . Therefore , we suggest that promoting China‐Central Asia Free Trade Zone under SCO framework ,accelerate the process of regional integration and speeding up the construction of interconnection will promote bilateral trade .Moreover ,due to the complementary nature of trade and the building of “New Silk Road Economic Belt” , the trade of China with five central Asian countries will have a bright prospect .
trade potentialtrade prospectcentral Asia countriestrade gravity model
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普
