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澜沧江水域溢油风险多级模糊综合评价研究

Study on multistage fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of oil spill risk in Lancang River

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目前溢油风险评价研究多集中在海洋方面,受河流溢油事故风险源和风险受体复杂性影响,现有溢油风险评价方法难以满足多样性环境条件下河流溢油区域风险管理需要.从风险源危险性、控制机制有效性和风险受体敏感性等三个方面建立了澜沧江水域溢油风险多级评价指标体系,包含 8 个准则层指标和22 个细化指标,构建了基于层次分析法的澜沧江水域溢油风险度量化计算方法,并由此得出中缅输油管道—糯扎渡电站、糯扎渡电站—思茅港、思茅港—景洪大坝、景洪大坝—景洪港、景洪港—关累港等不同区域的溢油风险值,为澜沧江溢油应急资源配备和应急防控提供依据.
Most of the present studies on oil spill risk assessment have focused on the ocean.Due to the complexity of risk sources and receptors in river oil spill accidents,the existing inland water oil spill risk assessments have struggled to meet the needs of regional risk management under diverse environmental conditions.In this paper,a multi-level evaluation index system for oil spill risk in inland waters was established from three aspects,namely risk source risk,control mechanism effectiveness,and receptor sensitivity,including 8 criterion level indexes and 22 detailed indexes.A quantitative calculation method for inland water oil spill risk based on an analytic hierarchy process was established.On this basis,the Lancang River was selected for a case study,and the oil spill risk values of different regions such as China-Myanmar oil pipeline-Nuozhadu Power Station,Nuozhadu Power Station-Simao Port,Simao Port-Jinghong Dam,Jinghong Dam-Jinghong Port,and Jinghong Port-Guanlai Port were obtained.This research provides a basis for oil spill emergency resource allocation and emergency prevention and control in the basin.

inland riversoil spill accidentoil spill risk assessment

贾建娜、刘连坤、段鑫越、张凯磊

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交通运输部天津水运工程科学研究所 港口水工建筑技术国家工程研究中心 水路交通环境保护技术交通行业重点实验室,天津 300456

澜沧江 层次分析法 风险源 溢油事故 溢油风险评价

国家重点研发计划项目中央级公益性科研院所科研创新基金项目

2022YFC3203400TKS20230302

2024

水道港口
交通部天津水运工程科学研究所

水道港口

CSTPCD
影响因子:0.348
ISSN:1005-8443
年,卷(期):2024.45(4)