Simulation analysis of safety risk in automated container terminals operations based on system dynamics
System dynamics was used to analyze the safety risks of quay crane loading and unloading operations in automated container terminals.The system dynamics model with 19 independent variables in four aspects,including intrinsic safety factors,environmental factors,system and network factors,and management factors,was established with the help of the traceability analysis of the accident tree.Five auxiliary variables,including mechanical maintenance correction coefficients and network security control measures correction coefficients,were identified according to the actual situation.Fuzzy judgment was used to determine the probability of occurrence of independent variables,and the mathematical expressions in the system dynamics model were determined according to the logical relationships among the variables.The influence of the current safety strategy on the overall accident probability was tested through model simulation.The research results can provide a reference for the calculation of the overall safety risk of automated container terminals.
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据
