首页|政府规制对LNG动力船舶的影响与策略演变研究

政府规制对LNG动力船舶的影响与策略演变研究

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为推动LNG船舶产业发展,构建政府-造船企业-船东三方演化博弈模型,分析不同情形下三方参与主体的稳定性选择策略.运用MATLAB在理想稳定状态下进行仿真,仿真结果表明:造船企业和船东的策略抉择呈相互促进的关系,政府监管概率越大,造船企业和船东选择LNG船舶的意愿就越强.奖惩机制的设立对造船企业的影响更显著,只有补贴高于或罚款低于某临界值才能促进政府、造船企业和船东趋于理想稳定状态.因此,适度补贴和酌情罚款是推动因素.政府应建立阶梯式补贴、加大宣传力度、完善基础设施、加强碳税干预、突出收益优势.研究为相关政策制定提供了重要参考.
Research on the impact of government regulation on LNG-powered ships and the evolution of strategies
In order to promote the development of LNG ship industry,a three-party evolutionary game model of government-shipbuilding enterprise-shipowner was constructed.Through numerical analysis,it is found that there are four stable states in the initial stage of promotion,and only three stable states in the later stage.MATLAB was used to simulate in the ideal stable state.The simulation results show that:The three parties interact with each other.The strategic choices of shipbuilding enterprises and shipowners are shown to be mutually reinforcing.The greater the probability of government regulation,the stronger the willingness of shipbuilding enterprises and shipowners to choose LNG ships.The impact of reward and punishment mechanism.Shipbuilding enterprises are found to be more significantly affected by the establishment of the reward and punishment mechanism.An ideal stable state is attainable for the government,shipbuilding enterprises,and shipowners only when the subsidy is higher than or the fine is lower than a certain critical value.Therefore,moderate subsidies and discretionary fines are considered to be the driving factors.The government is advised to establish stepped subsidies,increase publicity,improve infrastructure,strengthen carbon tax intervention,and highlight income advantages.The research provides an important reference for relevant policy formulation.

LNG shippremium and penalty mechanismindustrial promotionevolutionary game

蒋军、林丽、马志明、陈丽璇、杨琛、王琬琼

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重庆交通大学 交通运输学院,重庆 400074

LNG船舶 奖惩机制 产业发展 演化博弈

重庆市教育委员会人文社会科学研究项目重庆市研究生联合培养基地项目重庆市研究生科研创新项目交通运输部关键核心技术攻坚专项重庆市研究生科研创新项目

23SKGH141JDLHPYJD2022002CYS22409GJ-2022-TOS-022023S0056

2024

水道港口
交通部天津水运工程科学研究所

水道港口

CSTPCD
影响因子:0.348
ISSN:1005-8443
年,卷(期):2024.45(5)