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改建公路交通量分析及预测研究

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以潍坊市X005灶朱路G206至朱里段改建工程为例,在交通量观测、OD调查等交通调研的基础上,运用增长率法、弹性系数法、Fratar模型、重力模型等进行交通量分析及预测.结果表明:该改建工程中小客车、小货车比重较大,项目影响区内发生量、吸引量比重较大的交通小区是潍坊市城区、昌邑市城区、寒亭区等地区;未来该项目所在区的中型车和小货车占比有下降趋势,汽车列车和大型车占比有上升趋势.
Study on traffic volume analysis and prediction for highway renovation
Taking Weifang X005 Zaozhu Road(G206 to Zhuli Section)reconstruction project as an example.Based on various traffic surveys including origin-destination(OD)surveys and traffic volume observation,methods such as the growth rate method,elasticity coefficient method,Fratar model,and gravity model were employed for the analysis and prediction of traffic volumes.The results indicate that within this reconstruction project,a significant proportion of small cars and small trucks is observed.Traffic zones within the project impact area that exhibit a substantial volume of origin and attraction include Weifang urban area,Changyi urban area,and Hanting district.Furthermore,it is anticipated that the proportion of large vehicles and car trains will increase in the future,while the proportion of small trucks and medium-sized vehicles is expected to decrease.

traffic volume analysistraffic volume predictionOD matrixFratar model

韩真真、孔祥逢、王明涛

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潍坊市寒亭区公路事业发展中心,山东潍坊 261100

山东华远公路勘察设计有限公司,山东 潍坊 261061

山东科技大学交通学院,山东 青岛 266590

交通量分析 交通量预测 OD矩阵 Fratar模型

2024

山东交通科技
山东省交通科学研究所

山东交通科技

影响因子:0.249
ISSN:1673-8942
年,卷(期):2024.(2)