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新冠疫情背景下城市交通系统韧性评估

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城市交通系统韧性发展是实现城市可持续发展目标的重要途径.首先从韧性的抵抗力、适应力和恢复力维度出发,构建系统韧性指标体系,采用熵值法客观赋予权重.然后结合系统动力学方法,绘制城市交通系统韧性评估的因果关系图和系统动力学流图,建立城市交通系统韧性评估模型.最后通过大连市实例验证,发现无疫情情境下交通系统韧性稳定上升发展;疫情情境下系统韧性下降,韧性损失达22.64%,原因在于交通运量大幅度降低,但在2024年可恢复至疫情前的韧性水平.研究结论可为公共卫生事件背景下城市交通系统韧性评估及其发展规划提供参考依据.
Urban transportation system resilience assessment under the new crown epidemic context
The resilience development of the urban transportation system is an important way to realize the goal of sustainable urban development.Firstly,starting from the resistance,adaptability,and recovery dimensions of toughness,the system toughness index system is constructed,and the entropy evaluation method is used to objectively assign weights.Then combined with the system dynamics method,the causality diagram and system dynamics flow diagram of the urban transportation system toughness assessment are drawn,and the urban transportation system toughness assessment model is established.Finally,the model is validated by the example of Dalian and it is found that the toughness of the transportation system in the case of a non-epidemic situation rises steadily and develops;the toughness of the system in the case of an epidemic situation decreases,and the loss of toughness reaches 22.64%,due to the substantial decrease of traffic volume,but it can be restored to the toughness level of the period before the epidemic in 2024.The conclusions of the study can provide a reference basis for the assessment of the toughness of the urban transportation system and its development planning in the context of public health events.

traffic engineeringresilience assessmentsystem dynamicsurban transportation

曾旭斌、冯天军、王飞、刘菁瑶、刘克毅

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吉林建筑大学 交通与科学工程学院,吉林 长春 130118

吉林省交通规划设计院,吉林 长春 130021

交通工程 韧性评估 系统动力学 城市交通

吉林省科技发展计划项目

20220402030GH

2024

山东交通科技
山东省交通科学研究所

山东交通科技

影响因子:0.249
ISSN:1673-8942
年,卷(期):2024.(4)