Relationship model of serious traffic violation and traffic accidents
In order to further analyze the relationship between traffic violations and traffic accidents,this article takes serious traffic violations and traffic accidents as the research object,collects and organizes the national serious traffic violations data from 2017 to 2019 and the national traffic accident statistics data from 2017 to 2018.Through regular analysis and regression fitting methods,it analyzes the temporal and spatial regularity of serious traffic violations and traffic accidents at the national level.According to the correlation between the two indexes,the rate of violations to accidents and the growth rate of unit difference were put forward,to describe the harmfulness of serious traffic violations;the national provincial administrative regions was divided into 3 groups of regions by unit difference growth rate of the ratio of violation to accident,and it established a corresponding quantitative model of serious traffic violations and traffic accidents;the correlation coefficient of the models is above 0.8,which can explain the relationship between the two indexes well.The results show that,there is a difference of the increasing relationship between the number of serious traffic violations and traffic accidents,which has different models in the 3 kinds of regions from 2017 to 2018;and the relationship is evolving directionally from the 3rd kind to the 1st.It will provide a theoretical basis for the daily traffic management of serious traffic violations and accident active prevention.
traffic safetyrelationship modelregression analysisserious traffic violation behaviortraffic accidentthe ratio of violation to accident
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
