Short-term traffic flow forecasting method of expressway based on ARIMA
Short-term traffic flow prediction holds significant guidance value for traffic operation and management of expressway and then provides reliable data supports for analyzing traffic trends,determining the scale of infrastructure construction and assessing operational efficiency.This paper firstly conducts stability analysis on traffic flow data of expressway,and employs information criteria for model identification.Then an ARIMA-based short-term traffic flow prediction model for expressways is established by adopting parameter estimation and model calibration.Finally a case study is made using real traffic flow data from the Jinan-Qingdao Expressway.The results demonstrate that the ARIMA prediction model exhibits good adaptability and stability in short-term traffic flow forecasting on expressways,outperforming moving average model and exponential smoothing model in terms of forecasting accuracy.
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