Impacts of Carbon Border Regulation Mechanism on Foreign Trade in China
The intricate interplay between the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism(CBAM)and China's domestic"dual carbon"targets has heightened the challenges associated with transitioning to low-carbon foreign trade within China.Drawing upon the dynamic evolution principles of CBAM and integrating the GTAP model,this paper analyzes the impacts of CBAM on China's industrial sectors and its principal trading partners in the short,medium,and long-term terms.Our findings reveal that the EU's CBAM,in the short term,adversely affects the import and export volumes of China's five primary energy-intensive sectors,concurrently inflicting substantial social welfare losses on both China and Europe,with the EU experiencing a greater degree of detriment.Moving into the medium term,these negative impacts broaden their scope,encompassing a wider array of China's industrial sectors and extending to other countries and regions,resulting in a larger EU trade surplus albeit at the expense of higher social welfare costs.In the long term,while China's import and export scale may shrink,it maintains its competitive edge in foreign trade.Conversely,the EU's foreign trade advantage intensifies.To mitigate the implications of CBAM,China must prioritize clean technology research for its five key energy-intensive sectors in the short term,followed by a comprehensive optimization of green industry layouts and deepening international collaborations in the medium term.Ultimately,fostering the regionalization and globalization of the green industrial chain emerges as a strategic imperative for China in the long term.
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