基于正态曲线和有效积温的美国白蛾发生预测和除治效果评估机制研究
Studies on the Forecast of Occurrence and Evaluation of Control Effect of Hyphantria cunea Based on Normal Distribution and Effective Cumulative Temperature
杨静 1徐敏田 2马春艳 1郑召坤 1牟文文 1王燕 1许玉倩 1焦硕 1赵磊 1闫丰军1
作者信息
- 1. 山东省日照市自然资源和规划局,山东日照 276826
- 2. 山东省五莲县林业技术推广服务中心,山东五莲 262300
- 折叠
摘要
经拟合,美国白蛾成虫羽化符合正态分布.求算出成虫-成虫高峰日有效积温常数为877.6±84.3日度、当年成虫高峰日有效积温常数309.3±31.5日度,并给出了通过高峰日有效积温和成虫种群消长趋势指数进行当代和下一代成虫数量预测的方法.在全种群治理理念的指导下,提出了空间覆盖量和种群覆盖量的概念,并在此基础上制定了一套幼虫种群死亡量计算方法,其可靠性在对往年飞防除治实践中得到了验证.
Abstract
There are signs in SPSS tests that the daily mergence amount and proportion in totality of Hyphantria cunea obeys normal distribution.It is given that effective cumulative temperature of peak day from adult to adult is 877.6±84.3 day degree and,cumulative effective cumulative temperature of peak day from the beginning of the year is 309.3±31.5 day degree by which can forecast the adult quantity of this generation and next generation by the aid of change trend indicator of adult population.Under the guide of TPM and APM,two ideas have been put forward which are called space coverage and population coverage and,provide a series of equations to evaluate death amount of larval population,which has been tested to be reliable in the past control by aerial spray.
关键词
美国白蛾/预测/数学建模/正态分布/有效积温/除治/回溯性检验Key words
Hyphantria cunea/forecast/mathematical model/normal distribution/effective cumulative temperature/control/retroactive test引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据