首页|蛛网膜下腔出血院内病死率的预测模型

蛛网膜下腔出血院内病死率的预测模型

扫码查看
目的 蛛网膜下腔出血是一种很严重的疾病,有着较高的致死率和致残率.本研究旨在研发一种模型预测蛛网膜下腔出血的院内病死率.方法 本研究数据来自于 2014 年至 2018 年就诊于北京大学 10 所附属医院的患者的相关资料,最终纳入 797 例诊断为蛛网膜下腔出血的患者.采用单变量和多变量Logistic回归,探究影响蛛网膜下腔出血预后的影响因素,用列线图来预测院内病死率.结果 在纳入的患者中,院内病死率为 7.53%.影响因素包括动脉瘤、心脏病、脑疝、脑内血肿、昏迷、肺部感染、呼吸衰竭和肺炎(P值均<0.05).预测模型的曲线下面积为 0.860(95%CI:0.809~0.911).结论 本研究构建了一个能够预测蛛网膜下腔患者的院内病死率的模型.
A risk model to predict the in-hospital mortality of subarachnoid hemorrhage
Objective Subarachnoid hemorrhage is a severe disease with high mortality and disability rate.The aim of this study is to develop a model to predict the in-hospital mortality of subarachnoid hemorrhage.Methods Seven hundred and ninty-seven patients with subarachnoid hemorrhage are extracted from 10 hospitals affiliated to Peking University during a 5-year period(2014-2018).A univariate Logistic regression and a multivariate Logistic regression are used to find the predictive factors for subarachnoid hemorrhage.A nomogram was constructed to predict the mortality.Results Of the included patients,the mortality rate is 7.53%.The predictors are aneurysm,heart disease,brain herniation,intracerebral hematoma,coma,pulmonary infection,respiratory failure and pneumonia(P<0.05).The area under the curve of the nomogram is 0.860(95%CI:0.809-0.911).Conclusion An accurate nomogram is developed to predict the in-hospital mortality of patients with subarachnoid hemorrhage.It will help reduce the mortality rates.

subarachnoid hemorrhagenomogramhospital mortalityrisk model

庹琳、包小源

展开 >

北京大学医学部医院管理处, 北京 100191

北京大学医学部临床医学高等研究院医学信息学中心, 北京 100191

蛛网膜下腔出血 列线图 院内病死率 风险模型

2024

首都医科大学学报
首都医科大学

首都医科大学学报

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:1.511
ISSN:1006-7795
年,卷(期):2024.45(2)
  • 25