Drawing from four decades of global pension reforms,this paper provides comprehensive reflections on the"multi-pillar pension"approach advocated by the World Bank,with privatization as its core,while considering the current state of pension reform in China.After revising the 2005 version of the approach into a well-balanced new model that is consistent with widely accepted pension economics and reflects global pension realities,the paper introduces international consensuses on pension reforms:First,the importance of Pillar 1 is upgraded to A+,while the significance of all funded pensions is downgraded to B,effectively excluding low-income earners who cannot afford the risks of capital markets from accessing funded pensions.Second,the crucial role of Pillar 0 is emphasized for political and economic stability and efficiency,with over 100 countries having adopted it,offering a replacement rate of up to 100％for low-income earners.Third,delaying retirement age is by far the most relevant approach to maintaining the sustainability of Pillar 1 and is widely adopted by almost all countries.In contrast,most countries that had implemented privatization reforms of public pensions have since reversed this approach.Fourth,the role of public pension reserve funds in smoothing intergenerational burdens is acknowledged,but their limitations in addressing the sustainability issues of unfunded pillars are also recognized.Fifth,caution is advised against relying solely on voluntary systems to address pension challenges due to their limited scale.Sixth,it is recognized that implementing a funded pension may not be a solution if a country's fund return rate is lower than its wage growth rate.Seventh,real interest rates in developed countries have shown a downward trend since the 1980s,and experts are not confident that the low returns can rise again in the future.Eighth,it is strongly recommended to first establish strong and well-run public pillars before focusing on a mandated or voluntary funded pillar,as no country has successfully operated a funded pension with unbalanced unfunded pillars.Ninth,to operate funded pensions effectively,it is necessary to first establish and regulate financial markets.Tenth,the challenges of promoting financial market development through establishing large supplementary pension funds,even in developed countries,are acknowledged.
multi-pillar pensionsdelaying retirement agesustainability of public pensionsreturn on investmentwage growth rate
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